Tonight is destined to be turbulent. At 3 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will reveal its last card for 2025—the year-end interest rate decision.

The market has already half-answered: a 25 basis point rate cut, which is highly likely. But what really puzzles people is the other half—will this rate cut be dressed in "hawkish" clothing? In plain terms, saying rate cut, but then hinting "take it easy afterwards."

What's even more exciting is that Deutsche Bank suddenly threw out a bombshell hypothesis: after experiencing the strongest non-recession rate cut wave in decades, will the Federal Reserve make a 180-degree turn and start raising rates next year? Once this idea is out, the market immediately exploded.

But to be fair, the IMF has just raised its China economic growth forecast for this year to 5%, which is a strong confidence boost for the fundamentals. But what about A-shares? Honestly, regardless of whether the Fed’s decision tonight is dovish or hawkish, risks are clearly on the table.

Look at the recent trend—slowly climbing, a typical gradual rise pattern. Just reviewing historical candlestick charts, this kind of market is most prone to sudden plunges. Even if tomorrow can bring another wave of false signals, once the central economic work conference concludes, the necessary adjustments will still come.

My approach is simple: don’t mess around now. The short-term volatility trading isn’t cost-effective; it’s better to actively hit the pause button. The real focus is on the time window from late December to early January next year—recreating the rhythm from the beginning of this year—waiting for the market to form a "golden pit," then entering calmly.

Sometimes, not moving is more valuable than reckless action.