Tonight's Federal Reserve decision is about to be announced, but what the market truly cares about isn't whether there will be a rate cut—it's about what kind of future roadmap Powell will outline.

If a dovish signal is released? A 25 basis point cut would just be the beginning, with the key being continued easing afterward. In this scenario, the US dollar is likely to weaken. Think about it—deposit interest rates drop, bond yields follow suit, and at this point, the cost of holding gold becomes particularly low. Capital may flow into precious metals, and the 4250 USD level might even be broken through.

But if a "hawkish rate cut" occurs—appearing to cut but actually emphasizing that inflation is not yet under control and that future rate cuts might be paused—then the market might stage a classic "expectation fulfilled and then retreat" scenario. Previously positioned long traders might turn around and sell off immediately. If gold prices pull back, whether the 4100 USD level can hold is uncertain.

Ultimately, it still depends on whether the Federal Reserve's "rate cut roadmap" is sufficiently dovish. Even if it meets expectations, without any additional surprises, the risk of a correction due to profit-taking should be watched carefully.