#数字资产生态回暖 Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting is happening, and the discussion in the circle has been especially intense these days—will they cut rates this time? What impact will a rate cut have on our market?

Honestly, many people have their focus reversed. We shouldn't just focus on this rate cut alone, but rather understand the **interest rate cycle** we are in. A rate cut is just a signal; the real positive comes from the continued expectation of rate cuts and the maintenance of the policy cycle. When this cycle completely reverses, the market rhythm will truly change.

But this round is a bit special. Previous rate cuts were adjustments within a framework; this time is different—we have just stopped shrinking the balance sheet. What does this mean? The central bank is no longer withdrawing liquidity from the market. If they cut rates again now, it's like stopping the bleeding on one hand while still bleeding on the other, resulting in a completely different effect.

More importantly, tonight's meeting is very likely to also announce the start of **balance sheet expansion**—in other words, directly injecting liquidity into the market. Think about it: stopping balance sheet runoff + rate cuts + balance sheet expansion—this is a triple positive overlay. From a liquidity perspective, this is like jumping from tightening directly to easing, which can be very attractive for risk assets like $BTC.

So rather than speculating on how one rate cut might affect the market, it's better to observe the overall change in liquidity conditions. This is the key to future market trends.