#数字资产生态回暖 💡 The central bank faucet has been turned on, but where does the water in the crypto world flow? This question is much more complicated than you think.

On the surface, it's a simple rate cut—more liquidity should mean higher asset prices. But the true game rules are hidden in the details. Institutional investors have long sensed the signals, with traditional asset management giants breaking discipline to enter the market, and ETF net inflows have become the norm. This isn't retail FOMO; it's large capital using real money to signal: the wind has shifted.

The most direct evidence is on-chain. In the past 48 hours, major holders have accumulated over 400,000 ETH, and spot supply on exchanges is rapidly tightening. What does this mean? Market expectations are heating up, and chips are shifting into the hands of long-term holders.

But there's a trap—technical indicators have already overextended expectations. Ethereum's RSI indicator has entered overbought territory, which usually indicates short-term gains are too deep. Historical experience tells us that the old trick of "buying the rumor, selling the news" is most effective at critical moments. That is, even if good news materializes, profit-taking may choose to exit first, creating a shakeout.

A more cautionary scenario is also possible. If central bank officials turn hawkish—for example, if the rate hike cycle isn't over—the dollar could strengthen instantly, and risk assets may face about an 8% pullback. This is not an alarmist warning but a historical regularity.

📊 Advice for traders:

Short-term traders: No matter how the news evolves, the crucial window is within the first 30 minutes after the event. Going long with the trend is fine, but set a stop-loss (-2%) and don’t be too greedy with take-profit (+5%). Holding overnight is too risky; close positions on the night of the policy implementation.

Holders of spot assets: If BTC attempts to break through $98,000, consider reducing positions by about 20% to reserve cash for possible oscillations later. Decide whether to add positions after officials finish speaking.

Options investors: This is the moment of volatility explosion. Buy "straddle" options to hedge against volatility changes, close positions immediately after the event, and don't be greedy.

🎯 Core logic: Rate cuts themselves are just about releasing liquidity, but where the liquidity flows to and when it flows out are the real variables that determine your account's profit or loss. In the short term, it may be a dilemma; in the long term, no one knows. So, managing risk exposure is the key.