BTC has been hovering around 90,000 dollars for a long time, to be honest, global investors are all watching how the Federal Reserve's meeting will unfold.

First, let's talk about the probability of a rate cut—that's almost certain. Non-farm payroll data and PCE data are both on the table; a 25 basis point cut is basically a foregone conclusion. The Fed has reached a consensus internally, and even the next candidate for Fed Chair, Powell, has publicly supported a 25bp cut. There's no real suspense about this.

But will BTC skyrocket after the rate cut? My answer is: no.

Many people think "rate cut = positive = surge," but that's not the logic this time. The market has already fully priced in the 25bp cut long ago, and the funds that needed to position themselves already did so. Look at BTC rising from 80,000 to 90,000—it’s largely driven by speculating on this expectation. Now that the rate cut is confirmed, further upward movement depends on other catalysts.

More importantly, by 2025, rates have already been cut twice. Which of those cuts triggered a big rally? After the September 17 cut, BTC fell nearly 8%; after the October 29 cut, it dropped almost 29%. The market isn't really concerned about whether this rate cut happens or how much, but rather about Powell's statements regarding the rate cut path in 2026.

Speaking of 2026—that's the real key to whether BTC can break out into a big trend. How long will the rate-cutting cycle last? How many more times can it cut next year? These are the core questions in the game among various funds.

What is the Fed's internal attitude now? Honestly, it's quite divided. One faction believes it should hit the pause button and maintain current rates; another thinks it should continue cutting 4-5 more times, bringing rates down to around 2.5%. This disagreement itself is the biggest source of uncertainty.