#加密市场反弹 The current driving logic of the crypto market has undergone subtle changes.

Market sensitivity to the macro environment has significantly increased, with volatility in US tech stocks transmitting instantly to the crypto market. This phenomenon indicates that the primary factors driving prices remain macro liquidity and risk appetite, rather than breakthroughs in the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies themselves. Traditional factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data are increasingly influencing the crypto market.

Capital flows show clear layering characteristics:
Conservative funds focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum
Risk appetite funds rapidly rotate among various altcoin tracks
Traditional capital participate indirectly through crypto-themed stocks
Stocks like MSTR and COIN are increasingly prominent as leading indicators of market sentiment, with their fluctuations often preceding reactions in the spot market.

Breakthroughs require new narratives to drive them
Historically, each major upward cycle in the crypto market has needed a new narrative to propel it. Currently, the market lacks strong consensus narratives similar to the DeFi Summer or NFT boom.
Although concepts like modular blockchain, AI combined with crypto, and RWA are frequently discussed, a clear path capable of attracting large-scale incremental capital has yet to form. On the technical side, the market needs to observe several key signals:
Can Bitcoin sustain a breakout volume above $95,000 and hold steady?
Can the total market cap effectively break through the $3.5 trillion resistance zone?
Will altcoin rotations converge to form a clear main trend?

In the medium to long term, fundamental factors such as a clear regulatory framework, institutional adoption, and integration with traditional finance are the key drivers to unlocking new upward space in the market.

The crypto market is currently in a sensitive transition period. Behind short-term price battles is the market searching for a new equilibrium.
Investors need to pay attention to: the results of key technical battles, whether altcoin rotations form a main trend, and the changing linkage mechanisms between traditional markets and the crypto market. The next phase of market development will depend on the interaction and final evolution of these factors.