Bitcoin consolidates as a global hedge and ETFs will reach US$ 400 billion by 2026, estimates 21shares

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin consolidates as a global hedge and ETFs are projected to reach US$ 400 billion by 2026, estimates 21shares Original Link: Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are expected to have a more institutionalized and liquid 2026, with increased entry of governments, banks, and other investors, a larger base of ETPs, and the evolution of similar assets. This is the conclusion of the State of Crypto 2025 report by 21shares, a provider of funds and exchange-traded products (ETFs/ETPs) of cryptocurrencies.

In this crypto market analysis, 21shares’ research team considers that Bitcoin should reach a new high next year but reiterates that the four-year cycle that characterizes the asset has been broken. This is due to the fact that ETFs, corporate, and sovereign investors absorbed six times the total bitcoins mined that year.

Thus, the expectation is for a cycle of greater liquidity and increased institutional participation, making the price curve less steep. “Now each cycle delivers fewer exponential returns but also much more moderate corrections, showing Bitcoin’s evolution. The halving may continue to be symbolic, but it is no longer the engine,” said Russell Barlow, CEO of 21shares.

“Since 2024, Bitcoin’s decline relative to all-time highs has never exceeded 30%, compared to corrections of over 60% in previous cycles. In summary, Bitcoin is behaving less like a small-cap retail asset and more like a global macro hedge,” added Barlow.

The greater exposure of governments and banks to Bitcoin is expected to spread to other assets. 21shares estimates that the global cryptoasset ETP market will grow from US$ 250 billion this year to US$ 400 billion in 2026, surpassing the volume managed by the world’s largest ETF, the Nasdaq-100, even with fewer traditional investors.

“Only 27% of Bitcoin ETPs in the US are managed by institutional accounts. There is still much room to grow,” says Duncan Moir, president of 21shares, who also emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes worldwide. “The SEC has opened the door for the offering of various assets like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin. There are already 120 ETP proposals under review. The UK lifted trading restrictions, and from Asia to Latin America, legal frameworks are being created, making crypto ETPs a standard global regulated access point,” said Barlow.

Last month, the SEC approved two 21shares ETFs under the Investment Company Act of 1940, the same standard as traditional investment funds, based on a basket of cryptoassets. In September, the manager launched its first products in Brazil, Latin America’s main market, referencing Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Cardano.

Stablecoins circulation triples

In the State of Crypto 2025, 21shares also estimates that the volume of stablecoins in the market will surpass US$ 1 trillion by the end of next year—currently at US$ 300 million. The sector, which has grown 10 times in five years, could be boosted by regulations in Europe and the US, where the White House signals progress for the coming years.

Optimistic projections also repeat for decentralized finance (from US$ 130 billion to US$ 300 billion), a predictive industry (driven by the US midterm elections), and for DATs (from US$ 110 billion to US$ 250 billion), although market concentration is expected in the latter.

In Brazil, 21shares estimates that US$ 318 billion in crypto assets will circulate in the economy in 2025, with 90% in stablecoins. Remittances, commerce, and payments are the main sectors. “The regulatory changes in 2023 caused the market to take off, and there is still demand,” says Bruna Cabús, representative for Latin America and the Iberian Peninsula of the manager.

From a technological perspective, agent-based artificial intelligence is expected to start taking its first steps, the report points out, being applied in areas such as payments, liquidity management, and cross-blockchain transfers.

Maximiliaan Michielsen, investment strategist at 21shares, said: “Agent economy represents a fundamental shift in finance, where AI agents manage payments, yields, and liquidity across blockchains in an integrated way, reducing friction and operational expenses. With emerging platforms in the field, investors and consumers can now access sophisticated, multi-stage financial strategies through simple language commands. As infrastructure and protocols mature, AI-powered DeFi is not just automating tasks but creating a whole new class of autonomous and investable capital, revealing unprecedented efficiency, scalability, and opportunities in the decentralized economy.”