I came across an in-depth analysis of Lighter and compared it with other perpetual DEXs. The valuation forecast is quite interesting.

Here are the core data points:

The fully diluted valuation is estimated to be around $3.3 billion. After airdrop release, the market cap would be approximately $750 million. This price range is quite cheaper compared to some leading protocols——a top platform has a market cap of $8.2 billion, and another emerging protocol has a market cap of $2 billion.

In terms of valuation multiples, Lighter is currently in a relatively undervalued zone. Of course, being cheap is one thing; ultimately, it depends on whether the protocol can increase trading volume and TVL. The perpetual DEX space is highly competitive now, and price is just the entry ticket. Product experience and liquidity depth are key to retaining users.