#ETH Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structure Interpretation of ETH Trend: "Clearly weaker than BTC, at a critical support decision point." The price around 3400 faces clear resistance and has pulled back. Currently testing near 3150, an important on-chain support level.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics On-Chain Data (Core Support Basis): According to Glassnode's on-chain cluster data, approximately 2.8 million ETH are held at an average cost around $3,150, forming a significant "support wall." At the same time, about 3.6 million ETH are concentrated at a cost of $2,800, forming the next strong defense line. These areas have historically absorbed selling pressure effectively. Technical analysis perspective: Analysts point out that ETH remains above the short-term upward trend line but needs to quickly find support around $3,150 to accumulate energy for an upward breakout. Sector and Narrative: Despite ETH's weakness itself, its Layer 2 sector within the ecosystem performed actively today (up 1.66%), indicating capital is seeking opportunities within the ecosystem.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Ideas: If the price rebounds to around 3400 and encounters clear resistance, and BTC is extremely weak, consider a light short position. Support levels are at 3000-2900. If the price stabilizes in this area and forms bullish candlestick patterns, it is an ideal low-buy entry point, with stops placed considering a 1-hour candle breakout. Normally, our short positions would be around 3500-3650. After a 1-hour golden cross or when a golden cross is imminent, a retracement to a 1-hour oversold condition could be a tentative long entry. Stop loss should be set beyond the red moving average line.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Support Failure Risk: Even with on-chain data support, in extreme market sentiment, key price levels may be broken in an instant, so prepare for stops. Ecosystem Capital Diversion Risk: If the market remains weak, funds might flow from the Ethereum mainnet to Layer 2 solutions or other public chains, exerting indirect pressure on ETH price. Overall Market Downside Risk: If BTC cannot hold key support and breaks downward, ETH will find it hard to stay unaffected, and its decline could be amplified.