#加密生态动态追踪 Yen rate hikes, USD rate cuts—A watershed moment for global capital flows

Recently, the market has been discussing a subtle but far-reaching change: the Bank of Japan is continuously raising interest rates, while the Federal Reserve is considering cutting rates. These are not two independent events but signals of a global capital reallocation.

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**The key is the "carry trade" mechanism**

Over the past few decades, international capital has established a fixed arbitrage pattern. Japan has maintained near-zero ultra-low interest rates for a long time, attracting global institutional investors to borrow cheap yen, then exchange it for higher-yield currencies like USD or EUR to invest in global assets—stocks, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and more. The size of these trades has reached tens of trillions of dollars.

**The situation is now reversing**

To combat inflation, the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to around 0.75%, with room for further hikes. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is also considering rate cuts. With one rate increase and one rate decrease, the interest rate differential advantage for "borrowing yen to buy dollar assets" disappears.

What happens when this arbitrage no longer profits? Massive capital must close positions—selling off global assets and converting back to yen to repay debts. The immediate consequence is a rapid appreciation of the yen, putting enormous selling pressure on global asset markets (especially US stocks and emerging markets). This is a cross-continental capital outflow.

**The Bank of Japan is also walking a tightrope**

Raising rates sounds simple, but Japan’s government debt is enormous. Significant rate hikes would directly increase debt costs and could suppress the already fragile domestic economy. The central bank needs to balance inflation pressures with economic stability.

**The conclusion is clear**: A global capital shift driven by exchange rate differentials is underway. This not only impacts traditional financial markets but also has profound effects on liquidity allocation in crypto markets. Any markets dependent on foreign capital should pay close attention to this change.

What’s your take on the Bank of Japan’s rate hike pace? How might this shake up your asset allocation?