#美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 Next week, the US November CPI data will serve as a watershed for the recent market. Although the Federal Reserve has already initiated a rate cut cycle and signaled a dovish stance, there are still many disagreements about the future policy direction—this inflation report could very well rewrite market expectations.

On Thursday evening at 21:30, the US will release the November unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, core CPI year-over-year, and monthly data. The same day will also see the release of initial unemployment claims. On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index final reading will be published. Among these data releases, CPI is particularly critical.

Why? Because current US inflation still hovers around 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. If the data exceeds expectations, the market will reinforce the logic of "inflation under control → continue rate cuts," pushing the dollar to weaken and risk assets like cryptocurrencies to rebound; if the data falls short, it could trigger a reassessment of the entire rate cut cycle or even reverse course.

Notably, after the rate cut last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield did not decline but rose, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term inflation and economic resilience. The divergence between the US stock market and bond market indicates that funds have yet to find a clear direction.

Next week also features speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic. Their statements around the CPI release will be analyzed word by word, and any wording adjustments regarding inflation or employment could trigger volatility. A market re-evaluation driven by macro data is brewing. $BTC $ETH