#美联储降息 ⛏ Crypto insiders all know the topic: The four-year cycle of Bitcoin halving

You ask, what is the most market-moving event in crypto?

It's not sudden good news,
nor a policy shift,
but something written in the code — halving.

🔁 What exactly is halving?

Simply put, it's a programming rule:
Every time 210,000 blocks are mined,
the BTC reward for miners is cut in half,
happening roughly every four years on average.

Looking at the historical timeline makes it clear:

2009: Miners receive 50 BTC per block
2012: Reduced to 25
2016: Reduced to 12.5
2020: Reduced to 6.25
2024: Now at 3.125

Think about it—new coin issuance decreases with each cycle, and scarcity is gradually reinforced through this process.

📈 Check the ledger: Is there really a pattern of "drop before halving, rise after halving"?

Indeed! And the rhythm is surprisingly similar.

⏳ Days before halving
Traders start speculating on expectations
Leverage is everywhere
Market sentiment soars
Then—suddenly, a sharp correction or shakeout

🔥 What about after halving?
Supply truly begins to tighten
Funds slowly flow back in
Often taking months or even a year
To see a new bull market breakout

But here’s a key insight: it’s not about whether the price rises on the day of halving, but how the long-term supply and demand landscape changes.

⚠️ Now it’s time to take note: don’t mechanically apply history

Why do I say that? Three reasons:

① The market today is completely different from four or eight years ago
ETF institutions, large capital flows, macro liquidity
These variables all change the reaction pace and strength after halving

② Historical patterns ≠ guaranteed future repetition
Halving is indeed a long-term positive
But short-term price movements still depend on capital sentiment
There’s no absolute “certainty”

③ What is the most terrifying risk?
Everyone is waiting for the same story
Consensus expectations often precede a collapse

🧠 So, what does it really mean to understand halving?

❌ Wrong approach: treating halving as a “precise buy/sell point,” obsessing over whether to act on halving day

✅ Correct mindset: viewing halving as a time marker within a long-term story

Halving isn’t a button you press for instant gains.
It’s more like—a slowly tightening supply valve.
Its effects gradually become visible,
but won’t show immediate results.

🕯 Words for ordinary investors

Halving is never a secret to instant wealth.
It only proves one fact: time favors long-term holders.

Who truly survives and rides through bull and bear markets?
Not those trying to “guess the exact halving day.”
But those who—
Understand the rules,
Respect the cycle,
Manage the risks.

So, what’s the conclusion?
Understand the logic of halving, but don’t worship halving itself.
Use it as a tool, not a myth.

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