2025-12-17 03:21:50

The Fed's actions last night immediately stirred up the market. On one hand, they announced a 25 basis point rate cut to the 3.5%-3.75% range; on the other hand, they suddenly launched a government bond purchase program. These seemingly contradictory moves were executed simultaneously, sparking immediate market discussion.

Let's first look at the rate cut. The rate reduction itself is not surprising, but the internal division within the committee is interesting—out of 12 voting members, 3 opposed the decision on the spot. Even more intriguing is the dot plot data, with nearly half of the members believing that rate cuts are unnecessary at this point; their projections suggest there might only be one more rate cut remaining by 2026. Powell talks about "preventing an economic downturn," but in practice, he's quite cautious, especially since inflation is still high at 2.8%.

The real blockbuster is liquidity. The Fed suddenly announced the initiation of short-term government bond purchases, with an initial round of $40 billion. This is equivalent to opening the floodgates early, injecting confidence into the market heading into the end of the year. For the crypto market, ample liquidity is like gasoline—this move directly fuels the rally.

On the employment data front, things look a bit strange. In November, 64,000 new jobs were added, which seems decent, but the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%. Even more exaggerated, October's data was revised downward by 105,000 (officially blamed on the government shutdown). This divergence in data actually makes the market more confident that rate cuts will continue next year.

Historically, whenever the Fed starts a liquidity cycle, Bitcoin has never been absent. The combination of "rate cut + balance sheet expansion" effectively lowers the cost of funds while increasing market ammunition. Although inflation concerns remain, liquidity improvement is now an undeniable fact.

Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating around $70,000, while Ethereum is also building momentum. With liquidity support and technical catalysts, doesn’t this story sound a bit familiar? There’s still over a month until December. Do you think this policy support can push Bitcoin above previous highs, or has the positive sentiment already been priced in? What are your thoughts on the market rhythm?

BTC0.11%

ETH0.62%

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PessimisticLayer

· 2025-12-19 22:15

Once again, liquidity has been released, but I really feel this time is different. With 40 billion poured in, it feels like handing a drowning person a straw. We need to wake up.

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DaoResearcher

· 2025-12-17 03:54

From the data performance of governance voting, the fact that 3 votes inside the Federal Reserve oppose this number actually highlights the core issue—the fragility of the signal transmission mechanism. Notably, nearly half of the members in the dot plot oppose rate cuts, which essentially reflects an incentive-incompatible game dilemma.

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NFTDreamer

· 2025-12-17 03:54

Lowering interest rates + expanding the balance sheet, this combined approach can indeed shake things up, but I'm more concerned about the three dissenting votes, which indicate that the Federal Reserve is actually quite conflicted internally. Liquidity has increased, but the 2.8% inflation threshold is still there, and it's hard to say how long it can be sustained.

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All-InQueen

· 2025-12-17 03:47

Powell's recent moves are really impressive—cutting interest rates and expanding the balance sheet at the same time, it's like giving blood transfusions to the crypto market. Wait, inflation is still at 2.8%. Can they really keep cutting rates? It feels like there will be repeated cuts later on. With three members opposing, it shows there's a big gap in internal understanding. The risk still seems quite high. Can Bitcoin at 70,000 break through the previous high? It mainly depends on how long the liquidity can support it. By the end of the year, it might all be digested. The employment data is so fragmented—Powell is probably just looking for reasons to cut rates. It's a bit deliberate. A $40 billion appetite is still a bit small; they will need to add more to truly boost the market. Historical experience is unreliable; this time is different. Crypto now has a larger scale, and capital inflows and outflows are more complex.

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ForumLurker

· 2025-12-17 03:40

Oh no, this $40 billion move feels like the start of another crazy wave. --- Three people oppose the rate cut? Powell is still pretending to be calm, but I think this is a signal of easing liquidity. --- Liquidity is really picking up, but with inflation at 2.8%, it might not go so smoothly later on. --- The 70,000 level is a bit awkward; breaking the previous high still depends on whether December can hold it together this month. --- Historical experience is just that—history. Will this time be another case of a policy announcement triggering a top-out? --- Unemployment rate is jumping up, and so much employment data has been deleted; this data is a bit unreliable. --- Ethereum is gathering momentum? I think it's more about when they plan to run away. Without absolute confidence, it's better to stay on the sidelines. --- The real big news is whether this $40 billion can actually drive the market, or if we’ll just be speculating on this expectation ourselves. --- Money has been unlocked, but do retail investors still have the bullets to buy? That’s the key. --- It seems every time a policy signal is released, analysts start storytelling. How much it can rise ultimately depends on trading volume.

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