Looking at recent data, the actions of the Federal Reserve are indeed worth paying attention to. In December 2025, they announced the launch of the "Reserve Management Purchase" program, injecting $40 billion monthly to buy government bonds—this marks the sixth round of quantitative easing since 2008.

There's an interesting phenomenon. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from less than $1 trillion before the crisis to nearly $9 trillion. During the same period, the US M2 money supply nearly doubled. What was the result? Housing prices, stock prices, and gold prices surged accordingly—this is inevitable. But the real problem emerged—since the fourth round of QE, the era of low inflation has completely disappeared, and stubborn inflation has persisted for five years.

From a macro perspective, the current US debt structure has become quite fragile. Government debt has surpassed $35 trillion, and the fiscal deficit remains high. Internal financial system contradictions are also accumulating—bank reserves have piled up to $3 trillion, yet market interest rates are frequently spiking. Without an obvious crisis, the Fed has sharply shifted from balance sheet reduction to expansion, which seems more like using larger stimulus measures to hedge against the side effects of previous policies.

The political cycle is also playing a role. Trump has already stated that he wants interest rates below 1% and may adjust the leadership of the Federal Reserve. To prepare for the 2026 midterm elections, a large-scale rate cut might be brewing. If a "cliff-like" rate cut is truly implemented, global markets will face a dual shock of dollar depreciation and soaring asset prices.

For the crypto market, this node is critical. Assets like ETH, BNB, and DOGE are essentially priced based on changes in the dollar system. When liquidity conditions shift from tightening back to easing, it usually boosts the valuation of risk assets. But the question is, how long can this easing policy last? Historically, the marginal effects of each QE round have diminished, and by the sixth round, this effect has become quite weak.

A question worth pondering is: when the printing press reaches its limit, how will the global financial system self-adjust? Will gold, commodity currencies, or even decentralized assets become new tools to hedge against dollar devaluation? This currency game is far from over; in fact, it may have only just begun.