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In my opinion, the most important chart to monitor right now is USDT.D ( the USDT dominance rate ).
The current price movement is very similar to 2021. Back then, when USDT.D first hit the major resistance zone, the market had been sideways for several months, then it surged strongly. During that period, BTC dropped from 45K to 24K.
Typically, a bear market cycle lasts about 300 days. Currently, we have only been about 70 days in. With the rapid volatility at present, the bottom could arrive sooner than expected, possibly before Q4/2026.
Therefore, as long as USDT.D remains below the resistance zone, BTC still has the potential to rebound. The scenario I am waiting for is:
USDT.D slightly breaks above the resistance and then returns to accept within the range → this would be a favorable signal for a BTC rebound.
Although BTC looks quite weak, USDT.D is still in the resistance zone and has not confirmed a breakout.
Conversely, if USDT.D breaks out strongly above, BTC is likely to decline to levels around 74K or even 68K. These are "inevitable" target zones, though it would be quite surprising if BTC drops straight down there without a sideways accumulation phase beforehand.
Waiting for the market to respond ✔️
$BTC $ETH