#HasTheMarketDipped? 日本银行历史性加息成为全球市场的“唯一指挥棒”

On December 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, marking a decisive departure from decades of ultra-low and negative rates. This move was unanimously approved and widely expected, signaling the end of ultra-loose monetary policy and the start of a longer tightening cycle if economic conditions continue to justify it. �
Reuters +1
The central bank emphasized that rates are still below estimates of the neutral range and that further tightening could occur in 2026, although at a cautious pace. This cautious stance reflects a complex balancing act between inflation control, wage growth, and economic stability. �
Barron's
市场反应：风险资产与加密市场双向分化
The immediate market reaction has been mixed:
Bitcoin and major crypto assets initially rebounded, with Bitcoin rising toward the mid-$80,000s as the yen weakened and markets largely priced in the hike. �
mint
Traditional risk markets also showed resilience, with the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 posting gains. �
Coinspeaker
However, the underlying macro narrative is tightening liquidity, with higher rates increasing the cost of carry trades — especially those funded by cheap yen — which historically has pressured risk assets including crypto. �
FinancialContent
This dual reaction reflects a broader shift in how markets interpret central bank policy: the headline hike was priced in, but the tone and forward guidance now matter more than the numerical decision itself. �
Reddit
全球流动性收紧与市场底部逻辑
The BoJ’s decision has amplified discussions around global liquidity conditions. Japan’s normalization, paired with varying signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, has fragmented what had been a broad, synchronized liquidity backdrop. �
AInvest
Historically, BoJ rate hikes have been associated with significant shifts in risk asset behavior:
Bitcoin has dropped 20–30% following previous BoJ tightening episodes, reflecting unwinding leveraged positions and carry trades. �
AInvest
While the initial market reaction this time showed resilience, this does not yet confirm that the macro tightening cycle is over — it may simply reflect liquidity already repriced and markets waiting for further cues.
是否触底？核心判断逻辑与关键信号
1. 流动性预期 vs 实际利率路径
The market’s short-term bottom will depend heavily on liquidity expectations. If the BoJ continues tightening, global funding conditions will tighten further, potentially increasing selling pressure on risk assets including crypto.
2. 美联储政策信号至关重要
Diverging views from Fed officials have introduced uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy. A coordinated or dovish pivot by the Fed could soften global liquidity constraints and offer a bottoming catalyst for risk assets.
3. 资金流与套利头寸变化
The unwinding of the yen carry trade — where cheap yen funding was deployed into higher-yielding assets — has already contributed to capital flows back toward safer assets and repatriation into yen-denominated holdings. �
FinancialContent
4. 技术面与情绪指标
Technical oversold conditions in both equities and crypto suggest relief rallies are possible, but oversold bounces are not the same as confirmed trend reversals.
短期策略与操作建议
Given the current macro picture:
✅ Maintain cautious positioning
❌ Avoid assuming the bottom is in until broader liquidity stabilizes
📉 Reduce high-frequency trading in favor of trend confirmation trades after major breakouts
📊 Monitor:
Fed policy announcements and projections
Capital flows into/out of risk assets
JPY strength and global yield curves
结语：市场底部或在边缘，但尚未确立
In summary, the BoJ’s historic rate hike has indeed shifted the macro backdrop from “high-amplitude oscillation” to more structural event-driven dynamics, forcing the market to reassess liquidity, risk appetite, and macro dependency. While short-term rebounds and relief rallies remain possible, the ultimate direction of the market is increasingly tied to central bank policy signals — particularly the Fed — and liquidity trends that extend into 2026.
#市场触底了吗？
Not yet confirmed. We are at a critical inflection point, where real bottoms form only after macro liquidity expectations stabilize and risk sentiment improves sustainably.
Reuters
CoinDesk
Investors react to BOJ's decision to hike rates
Bitcoin (BTC) jumps above $87,000, yen slides as Bank of Japan hikes rates by 25 basis points
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