As of December 22, 2025, Bitcoin has a short-term bearish trend but is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. It is highly likely to continue fluctuating from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, with the core battle taking place in the range of $81,000 to $93,000. A directional breakout will need to wait for clarity in liquidity and policy expectations.

1. Quick Long/Short Judgment (as of December 22)

- Bullish Highlights: The US November CPI fell below expectations, raising the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut in January (approximately 28.8%), providing an imagination of liquidity easing; the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has been fully priced in, leading to a short-term rebound and correction; there is structural buying support around $81,300 on-chain; whales and institutions are moderately increasing their holdings at lower levels.
- Bearish highlights: The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has cooled, U.S. Treasury yields are strengthening, and the U.S. dollar index is rebounding, leading to a return of funds to risk-free assets; high-level locked positions (93,000-120,000 USD) are suppressing the rebound, making it difficult to break the short-term holder cost line of 101,500 USD; year-end fund inflows and thin liquidity may trigger liquidations; the technical outlook shows a downward channel, with selling pressure dominating the rebound.

2. Continuity of Fluctuation and Key Positions

- Conclusion: The volatility is likely to continue until the Federal Reserve's policy is clarified from January to March next year. The current core range is $85,000-$89,000, with strong support at $81,000-$83,000 and strong resistance at $93,000-$95,000.
- Reason for the fluctuation: macro expectations swinging (interest rate hike/cut undecided), liquidity contraction, coexistence of high-level positioning and low-level support, futures/options expiration disturbances, no absolute advantage for either bulls or bears.
- Breakthrough conditions: Stabilize at $95,000 (0.75 percentile) and return to the $101,500 short-term holder cost line, or effectively break below the $81,000 structural support to potentially open a new trend.

3. Operational and Risk Control Recommendations

- Short-term: Focus on high selling and low buying within the range, lightly buy around 85,000-86,000 USD, reduce positions when encountering resistance at 88,000-89,000 USD; stop loss if it falls below 84,000 USD, and can slightly increase positions if it breaks above 90,000 USD and stays stable.
- Risk Control: Control leverage (≤3x), reserve 30%+ cash, avoid large option/futures naked positions, prevent liquidity shocks during weekends and event windows.