The real market "Whale" surfaces: Japan's "Mrs. Watanabe" makes a trillion-dollar turn!

The true whales of the market may not be Wall Street, but rather the "Mrs. Watanabe" (the Japanese retail investor group) that holds a massive amount of household assets in Japan. Their decades-long strategy of "lying down to earn" arbitrage is facing an epic conclusion, which could trigger a global capital reversal.
🔄 Strategy End: Arbitrage Opportunity Disappears
Their core strategy is: borrow yen at nearly zero interest rates → exchange for dollars → buy high-yield U.S. stocks and bonds, earning interest rate differentials and asset appreciation. However, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and the Bank of Japan raising rates for the first time in twenty years, the interest rate differential has sharply narrowed, making this strategy difficult to sustain.
🌪️ Potential Impact: Trillions of Dollars in Capital Outflow
To repay the yen loans, they may need to sell off large amounts of US stocks and bonds to exchange for yen. This is not an ordinary outflow of funds, but rather a collective shift of "one of the world's most steadfast long-term holders," with a scale in the trillions of dollars enough to cause significant market turbulence. The real eye of the storm may be hidden in a living room in Tokyo.
💎 The complex impact on the cryptocurrency market
The impact of this capital outflow on the cryptocurrency market is twofold:
1. Short-term pressure: If a widespread sell-off and volatility in global risk assets (U.S. stocks) occurs, the cryptocurrency market is unlikely to remain unaffected and may come under pressure.
2. Long-term structural opportunities: After capital withdraws from traditional markets, it needs to find new habitats. Cryptocurrencies, especially assets with unique narratives such as "non-sovereign" and "censorship-resistant" (like $ZEC ), may become a new choice for the long-term allocation of some funds. This resembles a complex story of "capital migration."
#渡边太太
When the "Eastern Housewife" starts to turn the ship around, do you think this will first impact the US stock market, or will it trigger a broader risk-off sentiment, causing some funds to accelerate their flow into alternative assets like cryptocurrencies?