The Five Bull Markets Revelation: Bitcoin Cycle Patterns and Key Signals for the Next Uptrend

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple full bull and bear cycles. From the early surge from $145 to $1200, to the 2017 dream of reaching ten thousand dollars, to the institutional rush in 2021, and now the new era with $86.97K—each crypto bull run follows a similar logic but is driven by unique forces.

The Underlying Logic of Bitcoin’s Bull Market

The so-called Bitcoin bull cycle is essentially a story of supply scarcity and demand explosion. The halving event every four years is the core node of this story—each halving cuts the new Bitcoin mining rewards in half, directly reducing the market’s new supply. This artificial scarcity often triggers price surges.

Data shows that after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin increased by 5200%; after the 2016 halving, it rose by 315%; and after the 2020 halving, it increased by 230%. The growth rate is decreasing, but the pattern remains consistent: supply tightening → institutional and retail competition → price soaring.

Bull markets across different eras have shifting drivers. Early on, it was tech believers’ enthusiasm; mid-cycle, media hype fueled the rise; most recently, massive institutional capital inflows have been the main driver. After the US spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024, over $4.5 billion in net inflows were attracted within just a few months. Major institutions like BlackRock’s iBit fund hold over 467,000 BTC, and the entire ETF ecosystem’s Bitcoin custody exceeds 1 million BTC—meaning over a million Bitcoins are locked within traditional finance systems.

From 2013 to 2025: Five Stages of Bull Market Scripts

Act One: 2013’s Wild Growth

In May 2013, Bitcoin hovered around $145. By December, it skyrocketed to $1200, a 730% increase. What was the background? The Cyprus banking crisis triggered global panic about the financial system, prompting investors to seek alternative assets. Bitcoin, as “trustless digital gold,” entered the public eye for the first time.

But this rally also revealed market fragility. The collapse of Mt.Gox in 2013 shattered confidence—at that time, it handled 70% of global Bitcoin transactions. Afterward, Bitcoin fell below $300 in 2014, a decline of over 75%.

Act Two: 2017’s Retail Explosion

If 2013 was Bitcoin’s discovery phase, 2017 was its consumerization. From $1,000 to $20,000, a 1900% increase—this rally was driven not by institutions but by retail investors.

The drivers included: the ICO boom attracting new capital; new trading platforms lowering entry barriers; media frenzy creating FOMO. Daily trading volume soared from $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end.

Regulatory crackdown soon followed. China banned ICOs and domestic exchanges; the SEC began strict compliance scrutiny. By late 2018, Bitcoin had fallen from $20,000 to $3,200, an 84% drop. This correction was more brutal than 2013, as participant numbers were 100 times larger.

Act Three: 2020–2021’s Institutional Era

The pandemic triggered aggressive liquidity injections by central banks worldwide, with the Fed slashing interest rates to zero. Against this backdrop, a new narrative emerged—Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square began adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. By the end of 2020, global institutional holdings exceeded 125,000 BTC, with net inflows surpassing $10 billion. Bitcoin rose from $8,000 to $64,000 (April 2021), a 700% increase.

What’s different this time? Holding quality. Retail investors might chase highs, but institutions were accumulating during the rise, laying a foundation for market stability. Of course, there were setbacks—Bitcoin retraced to $30,000 in July 2021, a 53% correction from the high.

Act Four: 2024’s Policy Dividend

Let’s look at the ongoing bull market. From $40,000 (January 2024) to $86.97K (latest data), a 117% increase—the keyword here is institutionalization.

After the SEC approved the spot Bitcoin ETF in January, capital flooded in. By November, ETF net inflows reached $4.5 billion. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity endorsed Bitcoin with their brands, signaling: “This asset is now as safe as stocks and bonds.”

Another key variable: political cycles. The new US administration has shown friendly signals toward crypto, with some lawmakers proposing the US hold 1 million BTC as strategic reserves. Such policy imagination itself acts as a price catalyst.

The April halving also played out as scheduled, further reinforcing scarcity expectations. As a result, Bitcoin hit a new high of $93,000 (latest data shows $86.97K, possibly with some retracement).

How to Identify the Next Bull Run’s Starting Point

Technical signals

Don’t just look at candlesticks. Professional traders monitor RSI—when RSI breaks above 70, it often indicates strong buying momentum. Also, observe the relationship between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages; when the short-term crosses above the long-term, known as a “golden cross,” it’s a buy signal.

In 2024’s rally, Bitcoin’s RSI repeatedly broke above 70, and multiple golden crosses occurred.

On-chain signals

Unique to crypto assets, these metrics include:

• Exchange Outflows: Large transfers of Bitcoin from exchanges to wallets suggest holders believe in higher prices and don’t want to be forced to sell.
• Stablecoin Inflows: Large inflows of USDT/USDC into exchanges indicate new capital preparing to buy.
• Whale Activity: Addresses holding over 1,000 BTC increasing their holdings.

Throughout 2024, Bitcoin outflows from exchanges hit record highs, and stablecoin reserves kept rising. All point to a trend of accumulation.

Macro signals

• Central bank policies: Rate cuts tend to favor risk assets.
• Dollar trend: Weakening USD often correlates with Bitcoin strength.
• Geopolitical tensions: Turmoil boosts safe-haven assets.
• Regulatory friendliness: Policy shifts toward crypto acceptance.

In 2024, everything is aligning: the Fed is easing, the dollar is weakening, the new US government is more crypto-friendly, and institutional barriers are being removed.

Real Risks in a Bull Market

1. Excessive leverage risk
Rapid price increases attract short-term traders using leverage. When a correction occurs (e.g., 5–10%), these leveraged positions are forcibly liquidated, triggering chain reactions of selling. Despite stable institutional holdings in 2024, retail leverage remains a hidden risk.

2. Regulatory uncertainty
While policies are improving, global regulatory attitudes vary. Sudden crackdowns (e.g., a major country banning Bitcoin trading) could burst the bull market.

3. Macroeconomic recession impact
If the global economy plunges into a severe recession, liquidity crises could drag all assets down, even if Bitcoin is viewed as a safe haven. Institutional holdings are not immune; they are risk deposits.

4. Valuation concerns
Bitcoin’s market cap exceeds $1.7 trillion. To double the price, an equivalent of new capital must flow in. While upside remains, the growth momentum may weaken over time.

5. Environmental and energy costs
Mining’s energy consumption remains a persistent public concern. Rising carbon prices or stricter regulations on energy use could increase mining costs, ultimately affecting supply.

Three Possible Future Scenarios

Scenario A: Steady Growth
If ETFs continue attracting institutional capital and policies stay friendly, the next target could be $120K–$150K. The bull market would become “ordinary”—not explosive but steady.

Scenario B: Sideways Correction
Bitcoin oscillates between $80K–$100K, waiting for new catalysts. This phase tests patience, but historically, such consolidation prepares for the next big move.

Scenario C: Rapid Drop
If macro black swan events (e.g., a major financial institution crisis) or regulatory shifts occur, Bitcoin could quickly fall to $60K or lower. In this case, holders may face 30–50% retracements.

How to Prepare for the Next Cycle

Do your homework, avoid blindly following
Understand what Bitcoin is, its value proposition, not just follow the crowd. Read white papers, study historical cycles, grasp halving mechanisms—these basics determine whether you can hold through downturns.

Choose reputable platforms
Security of exchanges matters. Use those with robust risk controls, fund segregation, and insurance. Enable all security features.

Asset allocation, not all-in
Don’t put all your wealth into Bitcoin. The proportion should match your risk tolerance. For most, 5–20% is reasonable.

Learn to use risk tools
Stop-loss orders are your insurance. When Bitcoin hits a key level, automatic sell orders limit losses. Don’t rely on perfect timing.

Track key timeframes
Halving occurs every four years, next in 2028. Monthly ETF data, Fed meetings, US elections—mark these dates. They often mark market turning points.

Engage with communities but think independently
Communities provide info and perspectives but don’t replace your judgment. Beware overly optimistic or pessimistic voices—they often carry emotional bias rather than analysis.

When Will the Next Bull Market Arrive?

Precise prediction is impossible—that’s market nature. But we can assess probabilities.

When the following conditions align, the likelihood of a bull run increases significantly:

1. Technical: Bitcoin breaks previous highs and stabilizes
2. On-chain: Continued exchange outflows, whale accumulation
3. Macro: Central banks remain dovish, economic data stable
4. Policy: Regulatory environment remains friendly or turns positive
5. Sentiment: Market sentiment shifts from extreme fear to neutral or optimism

Currently (at around $86.97K), the market is in a correction phase. The previous move from $64K to $93K has completed a rally, and the current pullback is normal profit-taking. The next signal could come from: policy (a major positive), technical support holding, or sentiment (fear being digested).

Summary: Bitcoin is Not Gambling, It’s a Cyclical Game

History shows that Bitcoin has survived from $1 to $93,000, enduring multiple 99% drawdowns predicted along the way, yet always bouncing back. This is not luck but because the fundamental scarcity logic always holds.

Halving is certain; it occurs every four years. The price cycles around halving are becoming more regular. From 2013 to 2025, each cycle, though not identical, follows the same core pattern: scarcity → demand increase → price rise → overextension → correction.

The key takeaway for investors: don’t try to surf every wave. Understand the big cycles, maintain your mindset, and wait for clear signals. The next Bitcoin bull market will come—just like winter will pass. But when exactly? The best you can do is stay vigilant and prepared.

Further Reading

• Bitcoin upgrades and Layer-2 scalability
• The role of crypto assets in diversified portfolios
• On-chain analysis basics: how to read whale movements
• Bitcoin allocation strategies before the 2028 halving