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On Christmas Eve, the Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo suddenly announced a rate hike, signaling the end of a 30-year era of negative interest rates. Just weeks ago, the yen was hammered down to a low of 157, but now the central bank is fighting back strongly, causing the foundation of 40 trillion yen in cross-border arbitrage trades to collapse instantly.
What does this mean? The zero-interest yen financing model is nearing its end. Traders who leverage low-cost yen financing to invest in high-yield overseas assets are now facing liquidation risks. Japanese assets are no longer cheap "garbage," and global hot money is fleeing in large scale.
The question is—cryptocurrency markets are the first to be affected. As arbitrage funds flow back into Japan and overvalued assets face liquidity shocks, can high-volatility assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL remain unaffected? Market focus has shifted from when the central bank will hike again to where the next liquidity vacuum will open.
Behind this yen storm is a complete shift in global 30-year monetary policy. Should you go long on the yen or adopt a defensive stance? Buckle up, the era of free lunches is truly coming to an end.