2025-12-26 15:27:05

Bitcoin has been consolidating for 34 days, with the compression range getting smaller and smaller. The only question now is—where is it headed?

Looking at the technicals, the two most probable short-term scenarios are as follows:

**Blue Scenario**: This is a standard converging correction pattern. If this plays out, there will be a pullback tonight. The key is the strength of the decline; if the drop isn't too severe, this possibility will be significantly increased. At that point, I will look for opportunities to build long positions.

**Red Scenario**: The decline tonight could be deeper, followed by continued sideways movement down to the 12.28-12.30 range. After finding support near 84,000, it would then turn upward.

Of course, there are some extreme cases. For example, a sharp surge above 94,600, or a violent break below 84,000 down to around 80,600—these could happen, but the probability is low. As a trader, I consider these extreme movements only for risk management reference, not as primary basis for opening positions. When actually trading, the focus is on strictly controlling risks to prevent black swan events. I won't go into the specific operational details here.

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RumbleValidator

· 10h ago

34 days of sideways compression, in simple terms, waiting for the right moment to determine life or death. Your analysis of these two directions is clear, but I am more concerned about the stability of node verification — whether the network can hold up during intense market volatility is the real issue.

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CryptoHistoryClass

· 10h ago

nah the 34-day squeeze always ends the same way... *checks charts from 2017* uncanny how we're literally following that playbook rn fr fr

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GamefiHarvester

· 10h ago

The 34-day sideways trend can't hold anymore, and it feels like a decision will be made today. Both the blue and red lines are possible, but I bet on the red line... See you at 80,600.

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failed_dev_successful_ape

· 10h ago

34 days of sideways movement can't hold anymore; this resistance level is really forcing a choice. The probability of the blue bullish trap is high, but I still bet on the red continuing to drop.

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retroactive_airdrop

· 10h ago

34 days of sideways trading is really impressive. If this continues, I might get depression. --- Both blue and red trends make sense; it's just a matter of betting on which one comes first. --- Is 84,000 really the key support? It feels like every time it's called the key level, but it always breaks. --- Risk control is well explained, but how many people can really stick to it when trading? --- The chances of a sharp rise to 94,600 or a direct drop to 80,600 are both low? Then I'll just wait and see the black swan. --- As the convergence gets smaller and smaller, it can only mean one thing—either a rise or a fall, no other options. --- Instead of analyzing so much, it's better to see what the K-line says tonight. --- Want to build a long position? Or wait for the red trend to come back for a safer move? --- I'm already tired of this technical analysis; I still trust the fund flow more. --- So where exactly should we go? Come on, give a definite answer.

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EyeOfTheTokenStorm

· 10h ago

34 days of sideways compression, it's been impossible to make sense of it for a long time. Instead of analyzing the trend, it's better to watch the flow of funds. Break 84,000 to cut losses—that's my strict rule. No matter how perfect the technical analysis is, it can't withstand a piece of bad news. Don't be fooled by these lines, everyone. Thinking back to the confident technical analyses from two years ago, they all turned into jokes. The market is just so realistic. Consolidation patterns can break out at any time. No matter how well risk management is done, there are times when things go wrong. Knowing when to take profits is the key.

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