Bitcoin Bull Market Signal Interpretation: A Complete Guide from Price Triggers to Market Confirmation

When BTC revisits its current position at $86.82K from the all-time high of $126,080, we observe that each bull market follows a similar initiation logic. Understanding this logic is crucial for any trader aiming to seize opportunities in the crypto market.

What Does a Bull Market Really Mean?

In the crypto market, bull run(bull market) is not just about rising prices but a systemic rebound triggered by multiple factors such as supply shortages, institutional recognition, and policy shifts. Common features of past Bitcoin bull markets include: sustained high-level breakthroughs, surging trading volume, increased on-chain wallet activity, and skyrocketing social media buzz.

The most straightforward definition is: prices achieve exponential growth within a relatively short period. For example, Bitcoin rose from $145 to $1,200 (730% increase) in 2013, from $1,000 to $20,000 (1,900% increase) in 2017, and from $8,000 to $64,000 (700% increase) during 2020-21. These are typical characteristics of a bull market.

Unlike the more moderate gains in traditional stock markets, Bitcoin’s bull cycles are often accompanied by high volatility, which means both significant profit opportunities and the risk of rapid retracements.

Comparison of Triggers for Past Bull Markets

2013: Early Recognition Upgrade

• Price Performance: $145→$1,200 (730% increase)
• Main Drivers: Media effect + flight-to-safety during the Cyprus banking crisis
• Market Performance: Daily trading volume increased from millions to hundreds of millions
• Outcome: Mt.Gox exchange security breach triggered a 70% drop, followed by a long-term bear market

2017: Retail Boom

• Price Performance: $1,000→$20,000 (1,900% increase)
• Main Drivers: ICO craze + improved exchange usability + FOMO sentiment
• Market Performance: Daily trading volume surged from $200M to $15B
• Outcome: Regulatory tightening (China banning ICOs and exchanges) led to an 84% decline

2020-21: Institutional Entry

• Price Performance: $8,000→$64,000 (700% increase)
• Main Drivers: MicroStrategy, Tesla, and other institutions entering + “Digital Gold” narrative taking shape + inflation expectations
• Market Performance: Public holdings exceeded 125,000 BTC, institutional investments surpassed $10 billion
• Outcome: Regulatory pressure caused a 53% correction

2024-25: Financialization through Regulation

• Price Performance: $40,000→All-time high of $126,080 (currently retraced to $86.82K)
• Main Drivers: Spot ETF approval (net inflow of $45B) + halving supply shock + policy-friendly shift
• Market Performance: BlackRock IBIT holdings exceed 467,000 BTC, ETF total holdings surpass 100 million BTC
• Outcome: Market sentiment is balanced at 50% bullish and 50% bearish

Recognizing Market Signals Before a Bull Run

Not all price increases lead to a bull market. Before the real bull market begins, the market will release key signals:

1. Technical Signals

• RSI rebounds from oversold (<30) to 50-70, indicating buying interest
• Price breaks above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming an uptrend
• Trading volume significantly increases, especially on support rebounds

2. On-Chain Data Signals

• On-chain wallet addresses increase month-over-month, indicating continuous new capital inflow
• Bitcoin balances on exchanges decrease, suggesting accumulation rather than selling by institutions
• Stablecoin inflows to exchanges rise, signaling large buy orders are being prepared

3. Macro Background Signals

• Halving cycle countdown (historically, prices have increased by an average of 280% within 12 months before each halving)
• Approval of new financial products (like ETFs, futures) lowers institutional entry barriers
• Policy environment turns more friendly (e.g., crypto-friendly statements after US presidential elections)

Current Position at $86.82K

Compared to the all-time high of $126,080, BTC’s current price of $86.82K has about 31% retracement space. This position is quite intriguing:

• Relative Strength: Despite the retracement, it remains above the yearly average price line
• Sentiment Indicators: Market bullish and bearish sentiment are balanced (50:50), indicating waiting for clearer signals
• Volume: 24-hour volume at $1.01B, moderate level, no signs of panic or euphoria
• Supply Pressure: Circulating supply is 19.96M BTC, still below the 21 million cap, but the growth rate has slowed significantly

This position is often a good time for large institutions to accumulate — not FOMO at the top, nor panic at the bottom, but a phase of strategic buildup.

Trading Strategies During a Bull Market

Gradual Entry, Risk Control

• Avoid all-in positions; instead, build positions in 3-5 batches
• Allocate entries at key support levels like $80K-$85K, $75K-$80K
• Set stop-loss points for each position, typically 3-5% below key supports

Track Institutional Movements

• Watch ETF holdings of major asset management firms (public disclosures)
• Monitor large on-chain transfers, especially withdrawals from exchanges to cold wallets
• Follow policy news, especially from the Federal Reserve and Treasury regarding monetary policy

Identify False Breakouts

• Valid breakouts are accompanied by above-average volume (volume breakout)
• If a price jumps over 15% in a day and then falls back the next day, it’s often a false breakout
• RSI reaching above 80 but unable to sustain indicates short-term overbought conditions, possibly leading to correction

Set Target Levels

• First target: the all-time high of $126,080 (about 45% upside from current)
• Second target: a 20% increase beyond the breakout point, around $150K
• Intermediate resistance levels: $100K (psychological milestone), $110K (previous rebound high)

Why Do Crashes Follow Past Bull Markets?

This is a question every newcomer should understand. Signals of a bull market ending often include:

1. Extreme Sentiment: Social media flooded with overly optimistic claims, even outrageous predictions like “Bitcoin $500K”
2. Leverage Liquidation: Futures market margin debt hits record highs, and a small decline triggers domino-like liquidations
3. Whale Selling: On-chain data shows large holders transferring coins to exchanges
4. Policy Shifts: Sudden regulatory tightening statements shatter confidence
5. Macro Reversal: Fed rate hike expectations reverse, safe-haven funds withdraw from high-risk assets

The 84% drop in 2017 and 53% correction in 2021 follow these patterns. Mature traders tend to be more cautious at the peak, setting take-profit points rather than holding all the way to the top.

Expectations for the Next Bull Market

Although the current market is in a balanced state (50% bullish, 50% bearish), the following developments could trigger a new acceleration:

Short-term Catalysts (3-6 months):

• Supply becomes truly scarce after halving, mining difficulty further decreases
• ETF holdings surpass specific milestones (e.g., 200 million BTC)
• US advances legislation on Bitcoin strategic reserves

Mid-term Drivers (6-12 months):

• US adopts Bitcoin as a national reserve asset (currently holding over 600,000 BTC)
• More countries follow El Salvador and Bhutan, including BTC in official reserves
• Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions mature, significantly reducing transaction costs

Long-term Empowerment (12+ months):

• Activation of upgrades like OP_CAT, enhancing Bitcoin scalability and supporting DeFi applications
• Bitcoin evolves from a “store of value” to a “computing platform,” expanding its potential market value

Core Advice for Traders

1. Don’t chase the pump, chase signals: Wait for confirmation from technical, on-chain, and macro factors before entering
2. Review regularly: Weekly review of your holdings and whether your logic still holds
3. Prioritize risk management: Account management is more important than bottom-fishing; better to earn less than suffer big losses
4. Learn from history: Study cases from 2013, 2017, 2020-21 repeatedly; patterns tend to repeat
5. Psychological preparation: The hardest part in a bull market isn’t making money but knowing when to sell at the top

Bitcoin’s bull cycles have proven their regularity—each driven by supply shocks, cognitive upgrades, and institutional participation. The current position at $86.82K is neither the end nor the beginning but a key node in another cycle.

Do your homework, control risks, and wait for signals—this is the surest way to long-term profits in the crypto market.