Prediction Markets: What Has Changed Is Not Just Accuracy… But Also Volume and Impact



Cumulative Volume: $14.12 trillion

Participation and Liquidity Accelerate via Kalshi and Polymarket

Prediction errors are 40% lower compared to consensus
Outperformance rises to 67% during high volatility periods

Why is this important?

The larger the volume, the faster prices absorb information with less noise.
Thus, prediction markets shift from a side idea to an instant forecast layer — often ahead of polls and models.

When uncertainty rises…
Watch where the money 👀 flows
Probability markets have become an advanced macro indicator, not a marginal one... $BTC
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