When will the next bull market for Bitcoin arrive? Analyzing market patterns based on past cycles

Bitcoin (Bitcoin) as the flagship asset in the crypto market shows clear signs before every major rally. Currently, BTC hovers around $87K, with nearly 45% room to reach its all-time high of $126K. So, when will the next bull market start? We need to analyze from three dimensions: historical cycles, market catalysts, and on-chain signals.

Common Patterns in Four Bull Cycles: What Triggered Bitcoin’s Takeoff

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced four distinct bull cycles. Each rally was driven by specific catalysts, not just spontaneous.

First Major Bull in 2013: From $145 to $1,200

In 2013, Bitcoin experienced its first explosive growth—from $145 in May to $1,200 by year-end, a 730% increase. What fueled this surge? First, early adopters accumulating, second, media hype, and third, the Cyprus banking crisis highlighting the safe-haven value of decentralized assets.

However, this bull was short-lived, collapsing after the Mt.Gox incident in 2014. When the exchange handling 70% of global BTC trading was hacked, market confidence shattered, and BTC fell below $300. The lesson: fragile market infrastructure cannot withstand black swan events, no matter how strong the bullish sentiment.

2017 Retail Frenzy: From $1K to $20K ICO Bubble

Four years later, Bitcoin soared again. Starting 2017 at $1,000 and ending at $20,000, a 1,900% rise. The driver shifted from tech enthusiasts’ spontaneous adoption to retail frenzy fueled by ICO hype.

New exchanges (with easier access) lowered entry barriers, media coverage exploded, and FOMO pushed prices higher. But this was followed by regulatory crackdowns—China banning ICOs, increased global scrutiny—leading to a sharp decline to $3,200 in December 2018, an 84% drop.

This cycle taught the market that growth without regulation is ultimately a bubble.

2020-2021 Institutional Era: From $8K to $64K Recognition

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global economic crisis, with central banks flooding markets with liquidity. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s story changed from retail speculation to institutional acceptance.

Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square began holding BTC on their balance sheets. By April 2021, Bitcoin surged from $8,000 to $64,000, a 700% increase. Infrastructure also matured—Bitcoin futures (approved late 2020) and ETFs paved the way for institutional investors.

This cycle introduced narratives of “digital gold” and “inflation hedge,” transforming Bitcoin from fringe asset to serious portfolio component.

New Variables in 2024-25: ETF Approvals Rewrite the Game

The ongoing bull cycle differs from previous ones. In January 2024, the SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF— a pivotal moment.

By November 2024, Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $2.8 billion in net inflows, surpassing gold ETFs. What does this mean? Ordinary investors can now buy BTC like stocks without self-custody or exchange accounts.

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone holds 467,000 BTC. The entry of major asset managers changes market liquidity and volatility patterns. Prices have risen from $40K at the start of the year to around $87K, just shy of the previous high of $93K.

Meanwhile, the fourth halving occurred as scheduled in April 2024—reducing mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Historically, each halving has led to significant gains within 12 months: 5,200% after 2012, 315% after 2016, and 230% after 2020. The supply tightening from halving, combined with ETF-driven demand, forms the dual engines of the current bull.

What’s Still Missing for the Next Bull Run Trigger

On-chain data offers several signals to watch:

Institutional Accumulation Continues

Companies like MicroStrategy continue large-scale purchases in 2024. Bitcoin’s exchange balances are at multi-year lows. When liquidity dries up, prices tend to spike more easily. Currently, market sentiment is balanced at 50:50, indicating we haven’t reached extreme greed.

Potential Policy Support

U.S. lawmakers proposed the Bitcoin Act 2024, suggesting the Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years as strategic reserves. While short-term implementation may be challenging, it reflects growing discussion of Bitcoin as a national asset. If such policies advance, demand levels could change dramatically.

Similar moves have occurred in Bhutan and El Salvador—both incorporated Bitcoin into national reserves. More sovereign nations adopting Bitcoin would politically affirm its monetary role, with exponential impact on price.

Technological Upgrades and Imagination Space

The upcoming OP_CAT upgrade on Bitcoin could unlock Layer 2 solutions, enabling higher transaction throughput and opening the door for DeFi applications. If Bitcoin can host DeFi ecosystems on-chain, its utility could expand from “digital gold” to “digital oil,” redefining its market cap.

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Market

History shows that each bull market begins with a period of doubt. The current price of $87K, compared to the all-time high of $126K, still leaves room—indicating we haven’t entered extreme greed. Practical steps include:

Step 1: Confirm Your Risk Tolerance

Bitcoin’s volatility exceeds traditional assets by over ten times. Before investing, understand how much drawdown you can tolerate. Historically, bull markets have seen 30-50% corrections along the way, which is normal.

Step 2: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Instead of Lump Sum

Don’t wait for the “perfect entry point.” Long-term DCA often outperforms timing. Whether at $80K or $100K, consistent monthly investments help average costs.

Step 3: Choose Secure Holding Methods

Long-term holders should use hardware wallets. Active traders should prefer regulated exchanges (like Gate.io with proper oversight) over self-custody to reduce risk.

Step 4: Focus on On-Chain Data, Not Just K-line Charts

Monitor on-chain activity—address activity, whale holdings, ETF fund flows. These are more predictive than minute-by-minute charts. When institutional holdings increase without a corresponding price surge, a big move may be brewing.

Step 5: Understand Tax Implications

Tax treatment of crypto gains varies by country. Before participating in a bull run, clarify your local tax rules to avoid trouble later.

When Is the Next Bull Market Window?

Looking at halving cycles, the 2024 halving is 8 months away from now. Historically, 6-12 months post-halving is the peak period—so the first half of 2025 could be critical.

From political cycles, a new U.S. administration might be more crypto-friendly, accelerating institutional adoption.

From technological timelines, the OP_CAT upgrade and Layer 2 deployments will determine how quickly Bitcoin’s functionality expands.

Combining these factors, the next significant acceleration likely begins in Q1-Q2 2025. But “obvious” doesn’t mean “sudden”—big bull markets often start with quiet sideways movement before erupting at a trigger point.

The current $87K, with nearly 35% room to the previous high, is enough to attract new flows without feeling “too late.” This psychological sweet spot often signals the start of a major move.

The key: don’t wait for the perfect entry price—start building your position now. Bull markets never announce their start in real-time; they only become clear in hindsight.

Monitoring Checklist:

• Bitcoin ETF net inflows
• Federal Reserve interest rate policies
• Institutional holdings disclosures
• OP_CAT upgrade progress
• Global regulatory news

Are you ready for the next cycle?