2025-12-26 17:20:38

Good evening everyone. I want to discuss a commonly overlooked issue: regarding certain oracle projects. If your research is still at the level of "AI Oracle, RWA, prediction markets, DeFi narratives," honestly, what you're studying is market sentiment, not true value.

Don't get me wrong. Narratives can indeed attract attention, but attention doesn't translate into cash flow; hype can create price volatility, but volatility itself doesn't tell a story of demand. Whether an infrastructure token can survive a bear market cycle depends not on how many stories are told, but on whether its demand curve is truly growing—simply put: Are there more and more applications and scenarios that are increasingly frequently paying for its data and security?

Let's expand this concept a bit: Are there more and more applications, in more and more scenarios, calling on this service more frequently, and willing to pay more for higher-quality data? If you accept this definition, your research focus will automatically shift from "how to view price fluctuations" to "what exactly is the protocol selling, to whom, and whether its sales are growing."

This is actually an upgrade in the research framework. From monitoring price charts to monitoring protocol cash flow and security budgets—because oracle services, on the surface, sell data, but in essence, they sell security guarantees. If you don't look at the security budget, you won't see its true moat.

Some may ask, how does token value relate to demand? My suggestion is: don't worry about perfect value capture formulas for now. First, look at the simplest and most direct three-stage chain—call volume → fee income → security investment. Once this logic is clear, other judgments become easier.

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ChainPoet

· 2h ago

Well said, finally someone has pierced through this layer of window paper. Most people are indeed speculating on concepts. --- Cash flow is the hard currency; everything else is虚的. --- I especially agree with the framework of "call volume → fee income → security investment," which is concise and hits the core. --- Narratives can deceive temporarily but not forever. The true test comes in a bear market. --- The oracle sector has been hyped up too much; few projects can withstand such scrutiny. --- The question is, how many people actually look at on-chain data? Most are still following rumors. --- The perspective of security budget is indeed fresh; most people really can't think of it.

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ILCollector

· 2h ago

This idea indeed hits the mark. Most people are just炒故事 (speculating on stories) and not actually looking at what the protocol is selling. Call volume → costs → security budget is the core chain; everything else is虚 (虚假,虚幻). The moat is well explained; without considering the security budget, it's indeed pointless. --- No matter how loud you boast, it won't turn into cash flow. I love this sentence. --- Another track blinded by narrative; wake up, everyone. --- So, the real infrastructure depends on whether users are willing to keep paying for it. --- Finally, someone clarified: it's not about the rise and fall of coin prices, but whether the protocol's sales volume is increasing. --- Security budget is the moat; this framework is worth revisiting. --- Oracles are a business selling security; one sentence reveals the essence. --- Most researchers haven't even considered the dimension of call volume, it's laughable. --- Once the cash flow logic is clear, valuation becomes easier to discuss. Getting the order wrong is just a waste of effort.

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SwapWhisperer

· 2h ago

Exactly right. Most people are still speculating on narratives and not paying attention to cash flow. Usage → Costs → Security Investment. This chain is the hard truth; everything else is nonsense. This perspective is indeed easy to overlook. Many analyses focus on storytelling rather than data. The moat depends on security budgets, which is crucial. Everyone takes it for granted. Finally, someone has clarified this issue. Upgrading the research framework is that simple.

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TheMemefather

· 2h ago

Exactly right, most people are just speculating on narratives and not looking at on-chain data. Transaction volume and cash flow are the real gold and silver; everything else is just air. A bunch of projects boast extravagantly, but their safety budgets are pitifully small—this is a true reflection of how deep their moats are.

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FrogInTheWell

· 2h ago

Writing very clearly, I used to be someone who only looked at narratives. Now I understand that I need to look at actual call volume and security budget. --- To put it simply, most people studying oracles are just betting on stories. This one hits the nail on the head. --- Cash flow is king; narratives are all虚假的. This idea applies to all infrastructure tokens. --- After so long, there are still people watching K-line charts and telling stories. It seems we need to return to the most fundamental question: is anyone actually using it? --- Moats are not in market cap or hype; they are in the security budget—simple and straightforward. --- Exactly, I’ve been burned by this before. I used to watch oracle narratives every day, but during a bear market, everything collapsed. Now I only look at call data. --- This is a watershed in research thinking—from emotional trading to fundamental analysis, the difference is huge.

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SchrodingerAirdrop

· 3h ago

Selling data is not as good as selling security, this has indeed been overlooked for too long. Most people are still chasing hype. --- Call volume → costs → security investment, this chain is much more reliable than just looking at price fluctuations, honestly. --- The real moat of oracle projects lies in security budget, that’s the key point, don’t just focus on narratives. --- Who the protocol is sold to and whether sales increase are more valuable data than stories, it’s time to change your mindset. --- A demand curve growth can only break through the bear market; just talking about AI Oracle and RWA is actually useless. --- Shift from looking at price charts to analyzing cash flow, it sounds simple but very few people actually do it. --- More and more applications are frequently calling and willing to pay, this is what a foundational infrastructure token should look like. --- Hype creates volatility, but volatility doesn’t tell you what demand is about, this hits the point. --- Narratives attract attention but don’t translate into cash flow, that’s the characteristic of Web3, someone will always be fooled. --- Not looking at security budget means you can’t see the true moat, this perspective is fresh.

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