The battle for the new Federal Reserve Chair candidate has entered a heated stage, and the underlying liquidity upheaval behind this power transition is directly threatening the trend of crypto assets.

As a key variable in global asset pricing, the policy inclination of the Federal Reserve Chair candidates has become the market's focus. Currently, the two main candidates each have their characteristics: one advocates for "cooperative rate cuts," with a nomination probability of around 47%, supported by Wall Street and the Treasury, and relatively sensitive to political pressure; the other emphasizes "Federal Reserve independence," with expectations dropping from 80% to 54%. This data-driven dovish candidate supports easing but refuses to blindly compromise.

The situation has become more complicated now. The tough stance of U.S. officials—such as outright rejection of interest rates above 1% and demands for the new chair to report directly to the White House—are impacting the Fed’s century-old tradition of independent operation. This intervention, combined with the Treasury’s intention to establish a "direct reporting line," is causing the market to reassess the likelihood of rate cuts.

Data shows the outlook is uncertain. Currently, U.S. CPI has fallen to a four-year low of 2.7%, theoretically providing room for aggressive rate cuts. However, persistent employment data improvements have become a hindrance. According to CME futures data, the probability of a rate cut in January 2026 is only 15.5%, rising to 42.2% by March. This volatility reflects extreme market uncertainty about policy prospects.

For the crypto market, this is far more than political drama. If aggressive rate cuts are ultimately implemented, global liquidity expansion will directly benefit high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Coupled with the current friendly regulatory attitude, the inflow of funds is quite possible. Conversely, if the Fed’s independence is severely undermined, leading to rising long-term interest rates, risk asset sentiment could be seriously suppressed.

The core question is: will the market ultimately favor the "easy-to-please" candidate or stick to the "independent" option? This choice could directly determine the liquidity rhythm of the crypto market in 2026.