#BTC的流动性状况 2025 US Economic Outlook: Widening Wealth Gap and Market Divergence

Entering 2025, the US economy presents two starkly different scenarios. A recent analysis by Ernst & Young points out that this trend is essentially a "K-shaped divergence"—benefiting the top, pressuring the bottom. While the stock market continues to rise and high-net-worth individuals expand their assets, wages for low- and middle-income groups have stagnated, purchasing power is eroding, and market expectations are weakening.

The data is quite striking: the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, and consumer confidence index has declined nearly 30% month-over-month. Even more interesting is the divergence in consumption structure—spending among the top one-third of high-income earners increased by 4 percentage points, while the bottom one-third saw an increase of less than 1%. Money flows where market signals are clear.

The retail sector best illustrates these changes. Walmart and discount retail chains have seen a surge in foot traffic, with Dollar Tree adding 3 million new customers in the first quarter. Among these new customers, 60% come from households earning over $100,000 annually. In other words, even high-income groups are starting to reconsider their spending.

The real challenge may still be ahead. In 2026, tariff policies will be implemented, passing cost pressures onto retailers, with price hikes on the horizon. The Oxford Economics warns that the K-shaped divergence is unlikely to reverse in the short term, and whether this asymmetric growth model can be sustained long-term remains uncertain.

When wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few to support GDP figures, what happens if these individuals pause their consumption? The resilience of the economy will face a serious test. The fluctuations of $BTC may reflect the market's ongoing deliberation over this outlook.