Don't be misled by the lie of the "rate cut bull market"! Deep dive into the Federal Reserve minutes, I see through the mirage of this wave of market sentiment.

"Federal Reserve rate cuts = crypto bull market"? Recently, such claims have been rampant in the community, with some even shouting exaggerated slogans like "Miss this wave, and wait ten years." As a veteran who has been deeply involved in the crypto space for 8 years, I must advise everyone: stay sober! This so-called "rate cut rally" being hyped up is nothing but a mirage—seemingly spectacular, but actually fragile.

Yesterday, I spent an entire afternoon reading the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes word by word, and the more I read, the more alarmed I became. Most people only catch the words "rate cut" and celebrate wildly, but ignore the hidden signals between the lines of the minutes—emphasizing "increased downward pressure on the economy," "significant stress in the employment market," and "the need to beware of risk transmission across markets." In other words: the economic fundamentals are already in danger, and the rate cut is merely the Fed's attempt to save the market; whether it can turn the tide remains uncertain.

Today, I will share some insights and discuss why this round of rate cuts is not a positive signal, and how ordinary investors can break through. First, it’s crucial to clarify a core understanding: the Federal Reserve’s policy goal is to maintain economic stability, not to boost the crypto market. Viewing the Fed as the "savior of the crypto market" is itself a fatal misconception.

Here's an analogy: the Federal Reserve is like an emergency room doctor for the economy. This rate cut is akin to administering a strong dose of adrenaline to a critically ill economy. The doctor’s goal is to get the patient out of danger, not to make them immediately get up and run. Similarly, the market’s short-term surge is just a temporary rebound brought by the "adrenaline shot," and does not indicate a reversal of the economic fundamentals. Once the policy effects fade, the deep-seated contradictions in the economy will surface, and the market will likely face a severe correction.

Let’s look at some solid official data: in the past month, the US unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points, reaching a nearly one-year high; retail sales data declined for two consecutive months; consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest point in half a year. These data points all indicate that the economy is in a downward trend. Against this backdrop, the Fed’s rate cut is a passive response, not an active move to initiate a monetary easing cycle.

Veteran investors may recall the pre-2008 financial crisis: at that time, the Fed also implemented passive rate cuts. Back then, the crypto market was not yet mature, but the stock and commodities markets’ movements are highly instructive—after a brief rebound, a long decline followed. History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. The current market sentiment is eerily similar to that time: everyone is treating sporadic policy benefits as a lifeline for a desperate turnaround.

Many ask me: "What should I do now? Is it just better to wait and see?" My answer is: for ordinary investors, waiting is not passive avoidance but the most rational strategy. If you can’t resist the urge to enter the market, at least strictly control your positions and prioritize risk management. I currently keep my holdings within 30%, all in mainstream quality coins, and I avoid altcoins at all costs. After all, in the unpredictable crypto market, surviving is the prerequisite for talking about future profits.

Finally, I want to share a heartfelt message: the crypto market has always been a game of anti-human nature. When everyone is caught up in greed and frenzy, we must learn to maintain fear; when everyone is overwhelmed by fear and retreat, that’s when we should look for opportunities to deploy. The frenzy sparked by this rate cut may seem lively, but beneath the surface, there are hidden currents and deadly traps.