A well-known on-chain data analysis firm recently released a market research report indicating that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market as early as early November 2025. The firm's senior analyst pointed out in the report that, given the continued weakening of market demand and the on-chain indicators' weakness, they predict that at some point in 2026, Bitcoin's bottom range could be between $56,000 and $60,000.

The analyst offered a noteworthy judgment — Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for two months. In their analysis, they referenced a comprehensive evaluation system used by the firm, which integrates both technical and on-chain data dimensions. The data shows that this evaluation indicator fully turned red and downward in November and has shown no signs of rebound since.

The key factors contributing to this situation are quite clear: Bitcoin has fallen below its annual moving average, network activity has significantly declined, trading enthusiasm has cooled, and the large-scale liquidation storm in October has almost exhausted market buying power.

From a numerical perspective, the predicted bottom price aligns closely with Bitcoin's "realized price" — which is the average cost basis of current holders. This cost basis is currently hovering around $56,000. Historically, bear market bottoms tend to be near this level. If the price indeed drops into this range, it would represent a retracement of about 55% from the all-time high of $126,000 set in October. The analyst stated that such a correction is relatively moderate in Bitcoin's historical context.