Institutions lock in the first half of 2026: BTC new highs are not a dream, Grayscale reveals four major drivers

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl explicitly stated in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026. This is not a simple call to buy but a systematic judgment based on macro, policy, and market structure changes. He listed four major driving factors covering multiple dimensions such as store of value demand, US dollar trends, monetary policy, and regulatory environmental protection, reflecting deep institutional thinking about this year’s crypto market.

Four Major Driving Factors: A logically complete bullish expectation

The four factors provided by Grayscale are:

• Growing demand for alternative store of value methods
• Weakening US dollar
• Possible Federal Reserve rate cuts
• Progress in bipartisan legislation on cryptocurrency market structure

This list appears concise but actually covers three dimensions: demand side, macro environment, and policy side. The demand for alternative stores of value reflects an increasing long-term allocation need for Bitcoin as “digital gold”; the weakening dollar and expectations of Fed rate cuts point to macro support for risk assets; progress in bipartisan crypto legislation directly indicates increased regulatory clarity — a prerequisite for large-scale institutional entry.

Demand side: Institutional allocation demand is real

Data from 2025 already provides the answer. According to the latest information, US investors injected approximately $31.77 billion into crypto ETFs throughout the year, with $21.4 billion net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Although this figure is lower than the $35.2 billion in 2024, amid market corrections at year-end, institutions still maintained net inflows, indicating genuine allocation demand.

BlackRock’s iBit Bitcoin ETF was particularly notable, with $24.7 billion inflow for the year, about five times the size of the second-place Fidelity FBTC, and ranking among the top net inflows in the entire ETF market. This shows that traditional financial giants’ enthusiasm for Bitcoin allocation has not diminished.

Policy side: Regulatory framework is taking shape

Grayscale’s mention of “progress in bipartisan legislation on crypto market structure” is not empty talk. By the end of 2025, the US political stance on cryptocurrencies has shifted from “whether to regulate” to “how to regulate,” representing a qualitative change. As regulatory frameworks become clearer, institutional concerns will significantly decrease, and the motivation to enter the market will rise sharply.

Macro side: Dual support from dollar and interest rates

Expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar theoretically favor Bitcoin. In a rate-cut environment, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases; dollar depreciation pushes up dollar-denominated commodity prices. From this perspective, Grayscale’s logic is self-consistent.

Market status: Prices already reflect expectations

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $89,033.89, up 1.44% in the past 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 0.52%. Although short-term volatility is high, from a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin has completed a full upward cycle from its lows in 2023.

In its 2026 outlook, Grayscale mentioned that “store of value demand and regulatory implementation can trigger a bull market,” which aligns highly with Zach Pandl’s four-factor discussion. While institutional opinions are not unanimous, consensus on key issues is already quite high.

Formation of institutional consensus

According to relevant information, over 30 top institutions—from a16z, Coinbase, Messari to Grayscale, Galaxy Digital, from BlackRock, Fidelity to J.P. Morgan, Standard Chartered—have, in their respective 2026 outlook reports, pointed to the same judgment: the crypto asset industry is experiencing a historic transition from “youthful turbulence” to “mature stability.” Such a level of consensus is rare in crypto market history.

Key details to watch

Although Grayscale experienced a net outflow of $3.9 billion from GBTC over the year, the firm has not stopped its crypto-related deployments. Recently, Grayscale submitted an application for a BitTensor spot ETF to the US SEC, further expanding its crypto ETF product line. This indicates that Grayscale’s strategy is: despite outflows from older products, it continues to seize market opportunities through new products. This approach reflects institutional confidence in the long-term prospects of the crypto market.

Summary

The prediction by Grayscale’s research head is not unfounded. The four major driving factors cover demand, macro, and policy dimensions, with a complete and mutually supportive logic. The ETF data from 2025 shows that institutional allocation demand is real, and the formation of industry consensus indicates that the market is entering a new phase. The expectation of Bitcoin reaching a new high in the first half of 2026 is based on current market conditions and reasonable judgments of macro and policy environments. Of course, any market forecast involves uncertainty, but based on institutional capital flows and industry consensus, this expectation is well supported.