2026-01-02 15:24:41

Everyone, pour yourself a cup of coffee and take your time to read. I am still the analyst who often takes the contrarian view in a bull market. Today, I need to dissect the trending topic that has been flooding the screens: Ethereum reaching $10,000 by 2026. This has caused a stir in major communities, and those influencers on Twitter have spoken convincingly, as if it will happen the day after tomorrow. But before you leverage your real estate holdings, let me use the perspective I’ve honed over eight years in bear markets to reveal the uncomfortable truths behind this "dream."

**Trap 1: The Scam of Linear Historical Extrapolation**

A common argument goes like this: "Look, from 2017 to 2021, Ethereum rose from a few hundred dollars to five thousand dollars. At this rate, breaking $10,000 in the next cycle is a sure thing." This logic sounds impeccable, but it is precisely the most deadly thinking trap in the crypto world.

Let’s use data to shatter this illusion.

Back in 2017, the entire crypto market was only a trillion dollars in size, and Ethereum was just a promising "youngster" full of potential. Now? The crypto market has grown into a monster worth several trillion dollars, and Ethereum has become the infrastructure supporting hundreds of billions in assets. To multiply its size tenfold again, how much astronomical capital influx would be required? It’s like expecting Yao Ming to grow another few inches every year—completely against basic laws of nature.

And here’s a harsh reality: the narrative’s hype is waning. Every epic surge in Ethereum’s past was backed by a brand-new, explosive story—smart contract revolution, DeFi wave, NFT frenzy… each one was something the market had never seen before. Now? The market is already experiencing aesthetic fatigue. When someone announces "another coin," people’s reactions are no longer surprise but numbness.

ETH4.54%

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SorryRugPulled

· 5h ago

Is this set coming again? Every day someone says it will reach ten thousand dollars, but what’s the result? Still stuck in the same place. Just listen, don’t really go all-in on real estate. Narrative fatigue hits the mark. Now no one is buying into air coins anymore. Linear extrapolation of history? That trick to fool rookies is okay, but forget about fooling me. With the size standing here, Ethereum can no longer double in value like it did when it was young. I’ve already said it, this cycle isn’t as crazy as the last one. Influencers keep dreaming every day, wake up everyone.

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BankruptcyArtist

· 5h ago

Yao Ming growing taller every year is a perfect metaphor, haha, but I still don't believe it. Big Vs love this logic of "it has grown so much in the past, so it will definitely be fine in the future," they can really brainwash people. Size is indeed the key; now to multiply tenfold again, how much money would it take to pour in? Who has such a big appetite? The fatigue from novelty is spot on; the freshness is long gone, leaving only new tricks to cut leeks. I would rather wait for a bear market to pick up bargains than get caught in this inflated bubble. Those guys who say they leverage real estate, wake up—this strategy could bankrupt you. Just judging by the narrative heat, you can tell the stage of the market; this is not bragging by analysts. Wait, is there really no new story anymore, or are we just numb and can't see it?

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MissedTheBoat

· 5h ago

Really, I've heard this linear extrapolation argument so many times, always the same way of cutting the leeks... That analogy from Yao Ming was perfect, it hit the nail on the head, the scale is different now, friends. I'm really feeling the fatigue from aesthetic overload; now I look at any coin and feel nothing, truly. $10,000, sounds nice, but the key question is who will take the other side? That's the core issue. Every cycle has a new story, is there anything new now? Can't think of anything. Those big V influencers speak with full confidence, I bet five bucks they haven't even figured out how to close their leverage positions. History doesn't repeat itself, it only rhymes—that's the most accurate saying in the crypto world. The scale is there, math doesn't lie, although both of us have missed some opportunities. Stable infrastructure actually means there's no story anymore—that's the paradox. Another year, another prediction emperor上线, comes around every year, it's hilarious.

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SchrodingerProfit

· 5h ago

Another linear extrapolation dream, I really can't take it anymore. --- Honestly, this kind of logical flaw has been exposed long ago, and people are still talking about the period from 2017 to 2021. --- Don't you have a sense of scale? How much money would it take to multiply ten more times now? --- The point about aesthetic fatigue is spot on. Who still gets fooled by some coin now? --- Wait, so does this guy mean that breaking 10,000 for ETH is impossible? Then why are so many still hyping it? --- The analogy of Yao Ming growing taller is brilliant; I understand it immediately. --- Every day "the next tenfold coin," it's truly numbingly repetitive. --- History repeats, but not linearly. Too many people still haven't understood this. --- Narrative decay is actually the core issue; without a new story, nothing can be hyped up.

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GhostInTheChain

· 5h ago

Another linear extrapolation dream, really annoying. If you're still believing in this, you need to wake up. --- The scale is no longer comparable to 2017, these big V influencers just know how to tell stories. --- Basically, there's no new narrative left, and the fatigue from aesthetics hit the nerve. The crypto world is all the same. --- That analogy with Yao Ming was spot on, right to the point. --- I'm truly amazed by those leveraging real estate; their mindset must be extremely inflated. --- Trillions in market cap and still trying to tenfold? Calculate how much incremental capital is needed, everyone. --- It's really just a lack of stories; DeFi and NFTs are old news, and the market is truly numb. --- Linear thinking is the biggest killer in crypto; many people have fallen victim to it.

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UncleWhale

· 5h ago

Yao Ming's analogy was perfect, much more reasonable than those who call out signals daily.

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