2026-01-02 16:22:58

The "Altcoin Season" topic has recently been brought up again. The key really comes down to one data point—the Bitcoin dominance.

Currently, Bitcoin's market share has surged to 59%, and this ratio still needs to continue to decline. As long as BTC's dominance drops below 50%, the market will release real liquidity, and that will be the stage for altcoins.

History provides us with valuable reference. During the 2020 bull market, after BTC's dominance decreased, various concept coins such as DeFi, NFTs, Metaverse, and blockchain games took turns to lead the market, with projects multiplying hundreds and thousands of times. In 2024, the AI concept took over for a wave of market activity, but the new mainstream narrative has not yet fully taken shape.

We are waiting. The next major narrative is very likely to still revolve around AI, but what specific form or direction it will take remains a question mark. Once Bitcoin's dominance further declines and liquidity flows in fully, new stories will naturally surface. The arrival of the altcoin season has always followed this pattern.

BTC1.82%

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SandwichDetector

· 4h ago

59% hasn't even broken below 50 yet, this wave might have to wait until the Year of the Monkey and Horse Exactly, just wait for BTC to let go That 2020 wave was really crazy, any broken concept could skyrocket a hundred times Will AI's next move again be an IQ tax? Liquidity is here, that's good, it's too competitive now Wait, wait, I think I bought too early Is the Bitcoin dominance data really that crucial? Will they hype up the metaverse again with this cycle? Breaking 50 is the real game, right now it's just agony Historical cycles, but can they be replicated this time?

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MetaverseHermit

· 4h ago

BTC占比59还不够低啊，得再砸砸才行 --- Again with this explanation, can the story from 2020 be replicated? I doubt it. --- The question is where is the new narrative? The AI story is almost worn out now. --- Fully flowing liquidity? Ha, it depends on where the funds actually go. --- Is historical reference useful? The market has already changed, brother. --- The copycat season is here, I don't even know what to buy. Too many concepts make it harder to choose. --- Breaking the 50% level has been a long time coming. If we wait like this, we'll be waiting until the Year of the Monkey. --- Instead of studying BTC dominance, it's better to keep an eye on the movements of big funds.

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GweiTooHigh

· 4h ago

BTC dominance breaking 50% is the only way to feel at ease. Currently at 59%, still dreaming. --- Here we go again, a new narrative every year. Can AI catch this one? --- Sounds nice, but when liquidity arrives, even the yellow flowers will wither. --- That wave in 2020 was truly incredible; any crazy concept could take off. --- There are quite a few question marks. No one really knows what the next move will be. --- The logic makes sense, but I'm just worried it’s another big hype. --- Waiting all this time, but it still depends on BTC’s mood. A bit tiring. --- Breaking 50% to start dancing? So when will that be? --- Historical patterns are just for listening; when that day comes, it’ll be a whole new story. --- Liquidity has been tested in various scenarios; experience is starting to wear thin.

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