Crossing 2025, the start of 2026 will be a major test—whether the Federal Reserve's dot plot can rewrite market expectations will determine the upcoming liquidity landscape.

The current situation is a bit awkward. The Fed is holding rates above 3.5%, inflation is stuck at 2.4%, and GDP has surged to 2.3%. Last year's 25 basis point rate cut seems more symbolic than substantive. Many hoped that aggressive easing would come to the rescue, but data suggests this idea might need to be temporarily shelved.

Wall Street's opinions are already divided: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are betting on consecutive rate cuts in March and June, while Morgan Stanley is much more conservative, expecting at most one cut this year. More extreme voices even call for a "zero rate cut all year" or a "150 basis point plunge" in the opposite scenario. This chaotic expectation itself creates opportunities.

The biggest uncertainty lies in personnel changes. Powell might step down in May, and if the successor is a dovish policymaker, the entire pace could reverse instantly. So this January FOMC meeting is not just about data presentation but a key point in the liquidity game for the whole year.

**How to respond? My approach is this:**

Don’t rush into full positions. Let the market sentiment release a wave after the dot plot is announced, then take action once a clearer direction emerges. Also, keep an eye on expectation gaps—if inflation suddenly plunges or employment data surprises negatively, the main theme of "gradual rate cuts" will be rewritten.

In terms of sectors, when liquidity is abundant, chase MEME projects for gains; during ecosystem booms, position in strong public chains; narrative-driven sectors are also worth watching. These are all opportunities created by divergence.

**My own portfolio allocation is:** Use BTC and ETH to support the bottom during major dips, focus on strong-performing public chains during rebounds, and allocate 5% to chase new narratives for ten-bagger coins. History shows that the greatest gains are always hidden in the most uncertain moments of the market.

After the dot plot is released, I will provide the first updated analysis in the comments. How about you? Bet on rate cuts in March or not? What coins are you stocking in your portfolio now? See you in the comments!