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The real logic behind the dollar depreciation, 2026 could be even crazier

The end-of-year US Dollar Index fell to 98.055, approaching a three-month low, with the full-year decline expected to be the largest since 2017. The offshore RMB broke through 7, soaring to 6.9963. What does this mean? Capital is voting with its feet.

The Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle shows no signs of stopping. After three rate cuts last year, the interest rate range has fallen to 3.5%-3.75%. Institutions generally expect two more cuts in 2026. As US dollar interest becomes less attractive, why does capital still hold on? Slowing US economic growth, falling inflation data, increasing fiscal deficits, and political uncertainty are quietly shifting smart money.

Asset reallocation worldwide has already begun. The euro and Australian dollar are surging, with the Australian dollar rising by 8 percentage points just last year. These non-US assets are absorbing the outflow of dollar funds. The once-dominant US dollar hegemony is being replaced by a more diversified global asset allocation.

How do market institutions view 2026? Mitsubishi UFJ predicts: the dollar will fall another 5%. Domestic analysts also agree: the US Dollar Index will continue to decline, and breaking the "6" level for the RMB has become highly probable. Who benefits the most? Gold. Some voices suggest gold prices could surge to $5,000 per ounce.

This is not alarmist talk, but an inevitable phenomenon in the currency depreciation cycle. When the dollar loses its appeal, safe-haven and value-preserving assets will usher in their era.