XRP has been frequently oscillating near the downward trendline recently, and this movement has many traders pondering—whether it is accumulating strength for a breakout or a trap for a false breakout.

From a data perspective, over 500 million XRP are locked, directly reducing the circulating supply in the market. In theory, a decrease in supply should reduce selling pressure, but the key is whether buying interest is truly strong. The locked amount looks good on paper, but if large holders unlock or policy changes occur, the supply and demand dynamics could reverse instantly.

Technical breakout signals are indeed worth paying attention to. If XRP can hold above the trendline, bulls may initiate a rebound. However, history often reminds us that false breakouts are common before a genuine breakout, especially near historical highs, so caution is necessary.

But don’t forget the impact of macro factors. Changes in Federal Reserve policies, movements of other major cryptocurrencies, regulatory developments—all are variables. The XRP/BTC ratio is also oscillating repeatedly, and any unexpected change in one factor could disrupt the current accumulation rhythm.

In simple terms, we are still in an observation phase. Technical signals may indicate a breakout possibility, and the locked-up data supports the logic of reducing selling pressure, but the market is always full of uncertainties. It’s essential to keep an eye on relevant news, and don’t forget to implement stop-loss and risk management.