#比特币市场分析 Seeing this data report from CryptoQuant, I felt a familiar sensation. This is the third time in a cycle that I've witnessed such a scene—the three waves of demand, with the last wave always being the easiest to overlook until it quietly fades away.

Since early October, demand has already fallen below the trend level, and I am very familiar with this signal. In 2017 and 2021, it was always the same rhythm. The hot demand for spot markets often marks the climax of a phase, and as it begins to recede, the market is still weaving stories and narratives, but the downward pressure on prices has already been gathering strength.

This is not to say we should be pessimistic now, but it reminds me that I need to change my perspective. Those who waited for the "last needle" in the past often died before dawn. Demand waning does not mean an immediate crash, but it does change the game—shifting from incremental growth to stock competition, from consensus expansion to chip volatility.

The real test is coming. At this point, the right move is not to chase the rally but to review your allocations. History has shown me that this phase often hides the best opportunities for deployment, but only if you survive to see the start of the next cycle.