Institutional return signals are strong: BlackRock ETF attracts 287 million in a single day. Can Bitcoin break through 93,000?

In the past three months, the largest single-day capital inflow, the US spot Bitcoin ETF sector has collectively rebounded. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) attracted a net inflow of $287 million on January 2nd (ET), reaching a new high since October last year. On the same day, total inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $470 million, reversing previous outflows. Driven by this capital influx, Bitcoin’s price stabilized above $92,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 1%. This is not merely a short-term market sentiment fluctuation; it reflects a systemic adjustment in institutional investment logic.

BlackRock Leads, Institutional Funds Fully Rebound

Looking at individual ETF performance, BlackRock’s IBIT has become the dominant player in the market. The single-day net inflow of $287 million has brought IBIT’s total net inflow to $62.38 billion. In comparison, the second-ranked Fidelity FBTC, while also performing well, has a total net inflow of only $12.2 billion, indicating a significant size gap.

However, it’s worth noting that this capital reflow is not solely supported by BlackRock. Other mainstream Bitcoin ETFs such as Bitwise and Grayscale have also recorded varying degrees of net inflows, showing a comprehensive rebound of institutional funds. The total net assets of the entire Bitcoin spot ETF sector have reached $116.95 billion, accounting for 6.53% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. What does this number indicate? The weight of institutional investors in Bitcoin is continuously increasing.

Not a Short-term Sentiment, but a Systemic Adjustment

Why are institutions experiencing a significant reflow at this point? Two factors mentioned in the news warrant deeper consideration.

First is portfolio rebalancing at the start of the year. Due to Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to some traditional assets in previous phases, its weight in institutional asset allocations had passively declined. As the new year begins, institutions are adjusting their portfolios, reallocating various assets. Bitcoin, as a previously passively reduced allocation, naturally becomes a target for re-accumulation.

Second is the end of year tax-loss harvesting. US investors often sell assets at a loss to offset taxes, a process typically completed by the end of December. After entering the new year, institutions tend to maintain long positions in the new quarter, which explains the substantial capital inflow at the beginning of January.

Both factors point to the same conclusion: this is not a short-term rebound driven by emotion, but an inevitable result of institutional investment processes.

Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand

The news highlights that this capital reflow occurs amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The US’s tough stance on Venezuela’s situation has increased global market volatility. In such an environment, Bitcoin has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, which itself is quite telling.

From a macro perspective, geopolitical conflicts are strengthening Bitcoin’s strategic attributes. As the global order undergoes rapid restructuring and political polarization intensifies, Bitcoin—being a decentralized, censorship-resistant store of value—is increasingly viewed by investors as a macro hedge asset. This view is echoed in BlackRock’s latest outlook—its 2026 Global Market Outlook states that stablecoins are becoming a bridge between traditional finance and digital liquidity, reflecting a renewed strategic recognition of digital assets by traditional financial giants.

Future Focus

Current data shows Bitcoin holding above $92,500, approaching the $93,000 target. The key question is whether this capital reflow can be sustained.

In terms of capital structure, the depth of institutional involvement is increasing. The total net assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $116.95 billion, a size sufficient to significantly influence the market. As long as institutional allocation demand remains strong, large-scale reversals in capital flow are unlikely.

Another important indicator is whether other mainstream ETFs will follow BlackRock’s lead. If Fidelity, Bitwise, and others also maintain continuous net inflows, it indicates a broader institutional consensus rather than individual institutional actions.

Summary

BlackRock’s single-day inflow of $287 million reflects a systemic adjustment in institutional investment logic rather than short-term emotional swings. The year-start portfolio rebalancing and the end of tax-loss harvesting are direct drivers, while geopolitical risks reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset. The overall capital inflow in the US spot Bitcoin ETF sector is evident, with institutional weight continuing to rise. Under this backdrop, the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through $93,000 is increasing, but whether it can hold this level depends on the sustainability of institutional capital and other market variables.