Asia's central bank policy shift is accelerating, with the focus on Japan. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda sent a significant signal at the New Year working meeting, clearly stating that as long as economic and price trends meet expectations, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates—how heavy is this statement? Think about it: over the past decade or so, the world has been relying on Japan's "cheap funds." If this source of liquidity truly tightens, the entire game rules will be rewritten.

From a policy perspective, Japan's logic is very clear: by gradually adjusting its monetary easing policy, it aims to stabilize inflation at a reasonable level while supporting long-term economic growth. This is not just empty talk—behind it is whether Japan's core CPI can stay above 2%, and whether the upcoming spring wage negotiations can create a healthy "wage-inflation" cycle. Once these two conditions are met, the rate hike cycle in 2026 will no longer be hypothetical but a certainty.

Global asset markets are quietly calculating the spillover effects of this. Japan's continued rate hikes will first impact the thirty-year-old yen carry trade—will funds borrowing yen to invest in risk assets worldwide start to flow back? Second, expectations in the U.S. Treasury market will be reshaped; as Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, a change in attitude could influence global bond supply and demand. Looking further, will other Asian central banks follow suit and tighten? This creates a chain reaction.

For the crypto market, this variable is even more interesting. Yen appreciation means Japanese retail investors face higher costs for crypto investments; if arbitrage funds withdraw massively, liquidity could be drained. But on the other hand, as traditional central bank policies become more complex and segmented, the pricing logic of crypto assets—non-traditional assets—may decouple from macro cycles. When the exchange rate intervention threshold (150 or 160?) and global liquidity diverge with "tight in the east, loose in the west," the re-pricing of risk assets becomes a suspenseful question.

Ueda's mention of "appropriate adjustments" sounds moderate, but the market's real concern is—can Japan's economy withstand the pressure of continuous rate hikes? Or is all this just a carefully crafted "expectation management"? When the last major easing central bank finally shifts, where will the next round of global asset revaluation begin?