Spot gold and silver soar together: signals of returning to $4400 and breaking through $76

Spot gold prices surged straight up in the early trading session on January 5, quickly reclaiming the $4400 level and reaching a high of $4420 per ounce, with intraday gains expanding to 1.6%.

Meanwhile, spot silver performed even more strongly, soaring over 4.47% within the day and successfully breaking through $76 per ounce. The precious metals market is experiencing a new trend driven by geopolitical tensions, monetary policy expectations, and structural supply and demand imbalances.

01 Market Dynamics

In the first week of the new year, the global precious metals market experienced intense volatility. On January 5, the spot gold (London Gold Fix) price broke through the psychological $4400 level strongly during the morning session, closing at $4400.530 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.59%.

At the same time, COMEX gold futures also followed suit, rising by 1.55%.

Silver’s rally was even more rapid, with spot silver prices breaking through $76 per ounce, with intraday gains reaching as high as 4.47%. This divergence reflects different driving logic behind the two precious metals.

The market’s risk aversion demand suddenly heated up, directly related to recent U.S. military actions against Venezuela. This geopolitical event disrupted the market’s calm expectations and prompted funds to rapidly flow into traditional safe-haven assets.

02 Gold Logic

The recent return of gold to the $4400 level is mainly driven by two core factors: escalating geopolitical tensions and market expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Analysts believe that geopolitical conflicts have added new momentum to precious metals’ rise. CITIC Construction Investment Securities research pointed out that recent U.S. military actions against Venezuela have increased international tensions, reinforcing the bullish trend in precious metals.

From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices are currently at a critical juncture. Wang Wenyu, an analyst at Hongyuan Futures Research Institute, noted that London Gold prices have support around $4150 - $4250 per ounce, while the pressure zone is near $4450 - $4550 per ounce.

In the short term, the market should pay attention to two major events: first, the possible rebalancing adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 8 to 14, which could trigger technical selling by passive funds; second, the U.S. December non-farm payroll data to be released on January 9, both of which could significantly impact gold prices.

03 Silver Logic

Unlike gold’s safe-haven attributes, the recent breakthrough of silver past $76 is driven by a dual force: industrial demand and supply shortages.

The global silver market has experienced supply deficits for five consecutive years, with 2025 expected to be the fifth year of structural deficits. This long-term supply and demand imbalance provides a solid foundation for silver prices.

Industrial demand is becoming the core engine of silver growth. The U.S. designated silver as a critical mineral in 2025, recognizing its irreplaceable role in clean energy infrastructure.

Notably, artificial intelligence infrastructure is emerging as a new growth point for silver demand. Servers designed for AI workloads consume two to three times more silver than traditional data center equipment.

Silver supply exhibits obvious rigidity. About 70% - 80% of silver is obtained as a byproduct from the mining of gold, copper, lead, and zinc, which means that even if silver prices rise, miners lack direct incentives to increase silver output.

04 Gold-Silver Relationship

For a long time, silver has been traded as a secondary precious metal, with its price movements largely reflecting gold’s trend. But 2025 marks a structural turning point.

Silver is increasingly driven by its own fundamentals rather than just following investor sentiment or gold prices. This divergence reflects a deeper shift in market mechanisms.

Currently, the gold-silver ratio (priced in USD) is about 65:1, significantly below the historical average of 80 - 90:1. Historically, during bull markets in precious metals, silver’s upward momentum has often been stronger than gold’s, a dynamic that reemerged in 2025.

Analysts believe that $70 could become a new benchmark for silver rather than just a temporary high. Citigroup research predicts that if industrial demand fundamentals remain unchanged, silver will continue to outperform gold.

05 Market Outlook

Regarding the silver market in 2026, there are differing opinions among analysts, but the overall outlook is optimistic. Conservative analysts like Peter Kraus believe that $50 has formed a new bottom, with a forecast around $70 in 2026 under baseline conditions.

More optimistic views come from observers including Frank Holmes, a global investor in the U.S., who believe silver could test the $100 level in 2026, with retail investment demand potentially being the real driver of accelerated price increases.

Of course, there are downside risks. A slowdown in the global economy could suppress industrial demand, and unexpected liquidity corrections might trigger rapid pullbacks. Investors should closely monitor India’s import trends, ETF flows, and market sentiment shifts.

On the Gate platform, investors can participate in the silver market through tokens like SLVON, which are backed by physical silver. SLVON is an RWA token issued by Ondo, supported by physical silver, and allows on-chain transfers and trading.

06 Investment Channels

On the Gate platform, investors have multiple ways to participate in this round of precious metals market. Besides direct trading and physical-backed RWA tokens, Gate has also launched related trading activities.

Gate is currently hosting the “Trading Champion Silver” contest, offering a total prize pool of 100,000 USDT to encourage users to trade SLVON/USDT perpetual contracts. First-time silver futures traders can receive a 10 USDT airdrop.

For investors seeking long-term allocation, understanding the different attributes of gold and silver is crucial. Gold mainly serves as capital preservation and a safe haven, while silver combines safe-haven and industrial growth properties.

The “hedge asset battle” between cryptocurrencies and precious metals is also worth noting. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin, after its consolidation in 2025, could break out in 2026, with its structural scarcity and institutional adoption potentially making it a strong competitor to precious metals.

The strong performance of the precious metals market in early 2026 is not only a reflection of short-term events but also the beginning of long-term structural trends. The safe-haven attribute of gold and the industrial value of silver are being re-priced in the new era.

For investors focused on the Gate platform, understanding these fundamental drivers and participating with appropriate tools while managing risks is key. Whether through traditional physically-backed tokens or innovative trading methods, multiple avenues are available to enter this market.