Venezuelan Political Turmoil: What Will Happen to the Legendary $60 Billion Bitcoin Reserves?

Local time January 3rd early morning, the United States launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela. President Maduro and his wife were detained by the U.S. and taken out of the country. Amid this sudden geopolitical event, a long-standing rumor circulating in the financial and intelligence circles for years has once again become the focus — to evade long-term sanctions, the Venezuelan government may secretly control a Bitcoin reserve worth up to $60 billion.

If this figure is accurate, the size of this asset is enough to rival the holdings of publicly listed company MicroStrategy, and even exceeds the entire country’s Bitcoin reserves of El Salvador. Bitcoin prices initially came under pressure after the news broke but showed resilience by January 5th, with the latest quote on Gate rising back to $92,938.80.

01 The Origin of the Rumor: The “Shadow Financial Empire” Under Sanctions

This purported $60 billion digital wealth story begins with Venezuela’s covert exploration to break through financial isolation. Over the years, U.S. sanctions have severely restricted the country’s ability to export crude oil through the global financial system and recover oil revenues.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out that Venezuela’s economic collapse stems from “macroeconomic imbalances, institutional deterioration, and external financing constraints,” with sanctions further amplifying these issues.

In search of a way out, Venezuela established a complex shadow financial network. Its core operations began in 2018, when the country exported 73.2 tons of gold, worth about $2.7 billion.

Sources reveal that if part of these funds were converted into Bitcoin when prices were low, between $3,000 and $10,000, and held until 2021 when Bitcoin approached an all-time high of nearly $69,000, the appreciation would be astonishing.

In addition to gold swaps, stablecoins (especially USDT) also played a key role in the country’s oil trade. Reports indicate that as sanctions tightened, by December 2025, about 80% of PDVSA’s oil revenues were received in USDT.

02 Key Figures and Hidden Channels: Who Holds the Private Keys?

As the core of the regime physically disintegrates, who holds the “private keys” to unlock this digital wealth has become one of Washington’s most pressing concerns.

The central figure in the shadow financial architecture is believed to be Alex Saab. He is accused of being the “architect” of this system, but court documents reveal that he has been an informant for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) since 2016. His dual identity makes the situation extremely complex.

To achieve covert asset transfer, a complex channel spanning Turkey, the UAE, and other locations has been established. After refining and selling gold abroad, the proceeds are converted into cryptocurrencies through OTC brokers, then processed through mixers, and finally stored in cold wallets.

Sources say that controlling the private keys of these cold wallets may not be the work of a single individual but rather a multi-signature mechanism designed by Swiss lawyers, dispersing the keys among trusted personnel in different jurisdictions.

03 Market Immediate Response: From “Risk-Off Selling” to “Rapid Absorption”

Geopolitical “black swan” events typically impact the crypto market, viewed as “risk assets,” immediately. This incident is no exception.

After the news broke, Bitcoin prices initially came under pressure. Analysts cited past cases: during the days following Israel’s attack on Gaza on October 7-8, 2023, Bitcoin experienced about a -5% correction. The market feared this event might push prices back to support levels around $86,000.

However, the market’s actual performance demonstrated greater resilience. Despite initial volatility, Bitcoin quickly stabilized and rebounded.

As of January 5th, according to Gate data, Bitcoin has risen back to $92,938.80. This trend indicates that the market tends to view this event as an already priced-in, isolated political incident rather than a long-term threat to Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

04 Three Future Scenarios: Freezing, Nationalization, or Selling?

The ultimate fate of this potentially enormous Bitcoin reserve not only concerns Venezuela but could also set a key precedent in the global sanctions game. Currently, there are three main possible scenarios.

Scenario 1: Long-term Legal Freezing (Most Likely). If the U.S. obtains the private keys through legal or intelligence means, these assets are likely to be frozen immediately and entangled in lengthy judicial proceedings lasting 5 to 10 years or more. This would mean over 600,000 Bitcoins (about 3% of the total supply) could be locked up long-term and “disappear” from the market.

Scenario 2: Inclusion in U.S. Strategic Reserves (Likely). Given the current U.S. government’s interest in Bitcoin’s reserve properties, these confiscated Bitcoins might be transferred into a “U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” This would be a permanent national-level holding, similar in effect to Scenario 1’s market impact.

Scenario 3: Large-Scale Selling (Highly Unlikely). Theoretically, U.S. authorities could choose to sell these assets in batches on the market. But considering the scale — 12 times the 50,000 Bitcoin sale that caused a market correction in 2024 — this possibility is extremely slim, as it would go against U.S. interests and could trigger a market collapse.

05 Investor Takeaways: Focus on Fundamentals Long-Term

For ordinary investors on trading platforms like Gate, the key takeaway is: short-term geopolitical noise and long-term structural value must be distinguished.

The market’s quick digestion of this event indicates that mature investors focus more on Bitcoin’s underlying narrative: its role as a non-sovereign store of value and its fixed supply cap. A potential permanent freeze of a whale’s assets could, in the long run, even be beneficial by reducing circulating supply.

Additionally, the reaction of traditional markets is worth noting. Despite Venezuela possessing the world’s largest proven oil reserves (about 3,030 billion barrels), its current daily production has shrunk to about 1 million barrels, only 0.8% of global output.

Therefore, the event’s direct impact on the global oil market is limited, which also somewhat alleviates macroeconomic concerns about triggering a broad risk asset sell-off.

Future Outlook

On the Gate platform, Bitcoin’s price as of January 5th is $92,938.80, up from the previous day. This number quietly rests on the screens of countless traders worldwide, seemingly unrelated to the secret war involving $60 billion, gold, and oil.

Who will ultimately control those crypto wallets remains fiercely contested among intelligence agencies and lawyers. But for the cryptocurrency market, the most likely outcome is not a sell-off tsunami but a silent transfer of assets — from a besieged regime into a prolonged judicial process, eventually becoming a silent digital asset on some country’s balance sheet.