This Wednesday's economic data will become the market focus, including US December private sector employment, weekly initial jobless claims, and US December non-farm payrolls. After the Christmas and New Year holidays, seasonal unemployment in Europe and America is gradually fading, and all data are expected to return to normal levels.

**Highlights of Private Sector Employment Data**

The expected value for December is 4.5, recovering to the levels seen in August-October, a significant rebound from November's -3.2. From the data itself, this signals a dovish stance—strong employment recovery means the Federal Reserve has no urgent need to cut interest rates. Coupled with the end of the Christmas holiday and the New Year job search surge, this figure may be revised upward further. Although the Fed does not place too much emphasis on private sector data, a large discrepancy could still impact market sentiment.

**Continuous Rebound in Initial Jobless Claims**

The weekly initial jobless claims expectation shows a rebound, indicating an increase in new unemployment claims and more people finding jobs, leading to a decrease in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits. This is generally seen as a sign of a strong economic recovery. However, since this data is released weekly, its impact on the market is relatively limited.

**The Key Variable is the Big Non-Farm Payrolls Data**

The unemployment rate has been rising throughout 2025 but finally declined in December from 4.6% to 4.5%. This is driven by the end of the Christmas holiday, companies and employees returning to normal work, and the "must go back to work after the holiday" sentiment. The expected non-farm employment change is 5.5, a significant increase from the previous value, possibly influenced by the US government shutdown. However, the most market-sensitive shift is from -10.5 to 5.5—though the forecast is not yet enough to surpass November's 6.4, it does not alter the overall weak employment trend and rising unemployment rate in 2025.

**Short-term vs Long-term Game**

In the short term, the "first shot" of the new year is unfavorable for immediate rate cuts, increasing the likelihood of postponing rate cuts. But in the longer cycle, these data do not change the overall weak economic tone for 2025—rising unemployment and declining employment numbers continue to support expectations of future rate cuts.

**Recommendations and Risk Control**

Volatility is inevitable this week. It is advised to set protective stop-loss orders on holdings to avoid frequent chasing of highs and lows. If the market can smoothly withstand the two shocks from non-farm payrolls without triggering stops, there will be about 10 days of relative stability afterward. The trend has already indicated the direction; the question is whether the market will continue or retreat again. The sharp fluctuations this week are precisely an opportunity for secondary positioning, provided risk control measures are in place.