The recent statement by the new Federal Reserve voting member has attracted market attention—if the economic trend remains stable, interest rate cuts could be initiated before the end of 2026.

In the short term, this signal provides a mild positive for risk assets such as stocks. The market thus confirms that the Federal Reserve is still on the agenda of rate cuts, while also closely monitoring downside risks to the economy. However, market expectations for the timing of rate cuts may gradually shift from "mid-year" to "second half."

What is more worth pondering is the long-term impact. The new voting member's viewpoint reveals a key variable: non-traditional economic factors like immigration policies are profoundly influencing the Fed's decision-making process. Fluctuations in labor supply directly affect inflation trends and medium-term economic growth.

The overall logic is this—under ideal conditions of a moderate economy, declining inflation, and stable employment, the Federal Reserve might implement small rate cuts before the end of 2026. But this path is not smooth; a complex and challenging labor market environment will be the area we need to watch most closely and where the greatest uncertainties lie.