Recently, the market has been a bit volatile. After asking around among friends who trade, I finally understood that everyone is worried about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike actions. Ueda and his latest statements hint at further rate increases, which has made many people nervous.

Speaking of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, it has indeed been somewhat aggressive in recent years. Last year, they raised the interest rate to 0.75%, creating a nearly 30-year high. Now they want to continue raising rates, even though core inflation remains at 3%, and the yen's depreciation pressure has not eased. From a policy perspective, they are indeed backed into a corner and have no choice but to act.

But what does this mean for the crypto market? Many may not have considered that, under Japan's historically low-interest-rate environment, international funds have been flowing into high-risk asset markets through arbitrage. Cryptocurrency is a major destination for this capital. Once the rate hike cycle begins, borrowing costs will rise, and those leveraged positions will have to consider liquidating to repay debts. Historical data shows that each time such a policy shift occurs, Bitcoin tends to face a 20% to 30% correction pressure. This time, even before the rate hike expectations are fully realized, market sentiment has already started to loosen.

In the short term, caution is definitely necessary. There's no need to rush into cutting positions, but it's also not the time to add leverage. Maintaining your holdings is most important; macro policy changes are just external shocks. The fundamental value of assets is the foundation for long-term gains. If the Federal Reserve hasn't signaled clear intentions yet, the liquidity withdrawal effect from Japan will be even more pronounced.

In this environment, it's better to focus more on underlying assets and project developments rather than obsess over short-term fluctuations. 2026 is just beginning, and there are many variables the market still needs to digest.