Many people in the community have heard this saying — small-cap coins need massive funds to be pushed up, and the dream of tenfold coins is far off. What I want to say is that this view is only half correct.

Having been active in the crypto market for many years, I have seen too many tokens go from obscurity to popularity, and I’ve also seen many people deterred by false notions of "difficulty." To judge whether a coin can be quickly launched, instead of obsessing over the total market cap, it’s better to focus on the order book — which is the true "mirror" reflecting the resistance to price increases.

Recently, many people have asked me about AR, so today I’ll use it as a case study to explain clearly in the simplest way.

Let’s start with some basic knowledge. The sell side of the order book is actually easy to understand — it’s the prices and quantities at which all current sellers are willing to sell. Simply put, the more sell orders there are and the more densely they are distributed, the higher the cost for funds to push the price up; conversely, if the sell orders are weak, pushing the price higher becomes relatively easier. That’s why some coins can double quickly, while others seem very sluggish.

I specifically checked AR’s order data, focusing on the price range from 4 to 35. Why look at this range? Because many people set their target for AR here — to rise from the current price to this level. When I looked at the data, I was genuinely surprised. The total accumulated sell orders in this entire range are only 200,000. Note, this is the cumulative amount, not scattered sell orders at a single price level.

Some might think, 200,000 coins of sell orders sound like a lot. But we need to do some careful calculations. This range spans a $31 price difference. At lower prices, sell orders are relatively sparse; at higher prices, they are a bit denser. If we estimate based on an average price of $15 (which is already quite conservative), the capital needed to absorb these 200,000 coins isn’t actually that intimidating. From another perspective, once market sentiment shifts, the difficulty for funds to enter is much lower than most people imagine.

This is the truth that the order book can tell you — some coins may seem unremarkable, but the cost to build an upward channel is actually quite thin. Of course, data is just the foundation; it should be combined with news and technical analysis for a comprehensive judgment. But at least this time, you see that a tenfold coin doesn’t necessarily require the legendary "hundred-million-level funds to push the market," and the market’s reality is often more interesting than we imagine.