A while ago, Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell is still fresh in people's minds. Now the market is speculating whether, if he returns to the White House, he will directly pressure the Fed to align with his economic plans. The choice of Federal Reserve Chair is essentially the best window into understanding his true intentions.

Currently, the two leading candidates are quite evenly matched. If Trump nominates Haskett, it basically signals "I want my own person." In that case, the Fed's independence would be significantly squeezed, and monetary policy could become increasingly accommodative—faster rate cuts and higher tolerance for inflation.

On the other hand, looking at Waller, although he is indeed more hawkish, the problem is that he himself is a staunch advocate of independence and is resolute on fighting inflation. This conflicts with Trump's goal of maintaining low interest rates. The tug-of-war between the two in the Fed could bring considerable uncertainty to the market.

The Federal Reserve Chair is one of the key anchors of global monetary policy. Once market expectations suggest this position might be politicized or its policy direction altered, the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, stocks, gold, and even the entire crypto asset market could face large-scale re-pricing.

For the crypto market, this is even more worth paying attention to. Trump has positioned himself as "pro-cryptocurrency," but in reality, the Fed's interest rate policies and liquidity injections have a much greater impact on the crypto market than any regulatory statements. A politicized, dovish-leaning Fed might inject more liquidity into the crypto market in the long run, but in the short term, market uncertainty will increase, and volatility will definitely be amplified.

Recent market data shows traders are re-evaluating Trump's entire political strategy. Waller's support rate is rapidly catching up with Haskett's, indicating that the market now tends to believe Trump might choose a "more professional, seemingly more independent" candidate, which could enhance the credibility of his economic team rather than handing this position directly to his closest advisors.

But these are all expectations during the campaign phase. The real decisive factor is who is ultimately confirmed and what that person will do once in office.

Regardless of who ultimately gets the position, as long as Trump wins, the topic of "the risk of erosion of Fed independence" will remain a core narrative that the global financial markets will have to face in the coming years. The announcement of this chair nomination is like a prelude to this big story. Keeping a close eye on this matter is very helpful for making investment decisions.