## Swiss Franc in an Upward Trend: Why Does the EUR/CHF Continue Falling in 2024?

### The Technical Scenario Shows Clear Signals

The movement of the Swiss franc has captured the attention of technical traders during the first months of 2024. Contrary to what many expected after the correction attempts in January and February, charts reveal that this currency maintains a very consistent long-term bullish trend. Moving average analyses indicate that recent pullbacks are more due to profit-taking and capital reallocation than to a true structural weakness of the Swiss franc.

The EUR/CHF pair approaches the critical threshold of 1.10 euros per Swiss franc. Considering current economic fundamentals and monetary policy differences, experts estimate that this barrier will be surpassed before the end of the year.

### The Numbers Say It All: Inflation and Interest Rates

The gap between Switzerland and the Eurozone is increasingly pronounced when examining macroeconomic indicators. While inflation in the eurozone remains around 3%, in Switzerland it barely hovers around 1%. This threefold difference in price levels is a key factor in the behavior of the euro and the Swiss franc.

Interest rates accentuate this divergence even further. The Swiss National Bank maintains its rates at 1.75%, a moderate level that balances monetary stability without sacrificing economic growth. In contrast, the Eurozone maintains rates between 4% and 4.50%, high figures that reflect the ongoing fight against persistent inflation. This rate differential significantly favors the accumulation of Swiss francs among investors seeking differential returns.

### Why the Swiss Franc Is Revaluing Against the Euro

The movements of EUR/CHF are no coincidence. Over the past two years, the Swiss franc has returned to levels not seen since 2015, reflecting a structural confidence in the Swiss currency that goes beyond temporary fluctuations.

Switzerland presents a particularly robust economic profile: contained inflation, manageable debt levels, relatively lower energy bills, and most importantly, no military commitments weighing on its public finances. In contrast, the Eurozone faces intense geopolitical turbulence, increasing defense spending, and economies like Germany on the brink of cyclical difficulties.

### Projection Scenarios for EUR/CHF

Analysts propose three possible scenarios for the euro-Swiss franc pair during 2024 and 2025:

**Favorable scenario for the euro:** The value of the Swiss franc would moderate to 1.05 in 2024 and could retreat to 1.00 in 2025 if the Eurozone achieves political and geopolitical stability.

**Neutral scenario:** A balanced context would keep EUR/CHF around 1.10 in 2024 and 1.12 in 2025, with both currencies finding relative equilibrium.

**Unfavorable scenario for the euro:** If European instability persists, the Swiss franc could reach 1.18 in 2024 and up to 1.22 in 2025. This scenario would reflect a collapse of confidence in the European common currency.

What seems practically ruled out is that the Swiss franc falls below the parity threshold (1.00). Even in the most optimistic scenario for the euro, the Swiss currency would remain firm.

### The History of the Franc as a Safe Asset

Historically, the Swiss franc has served as a refuge in times of financial and geopolitical turbulence. This role has been reactivated in 2024, with thousands of European investors seeking to protect their savings in a more stable currency than the euro during the energy crisis and security tensions that affected the continent between 2022 and 2023.

Now that inflation in the Eurozone has begun to moderate, some capital flow back from Swiss franc positions to euro-denominated assets is observed. However, this movement has been gradual, not massive, suggesting that confidence in the Swiss currency persists as a long-term structure.

### Comparison with Other Safe-Haven Currencies

When comparing the performance of the Swiss franc with other major Western currencies, the results clearly favor the Swiss currency. The US dollar faces its own uncertainties, the Japanese yen is experiencing significant difficulties, and the euro struggles against political and economic headwinds.

However, emerging competitors are appearing in the Asian horizon: the Singapore dollar gains traction as an alternative safe asset, while the Chinese yuan positions itself as a new global reference currency. This suggests that although the Swiss franc remains attractive, geographic diversification in international portfolios is increasingly advisable.

### Investment Decision: EUR/CHF in Perspective

For the average investor, the key question is whether to bet on the strengthening of the Swiss franc against the euro. Current fundamentals suggest it is difficult to imagine a medium-term scenario where the euro regains significant ground.

Eurozone inflation figures continue to triple Swiss figures. Debt levels in European countries have increased, while Switzerland maintains prudent ratios. European military spending on defense represents a financial burden that Switzerland simply does not face.

Although the Eurozone has shown some resilience after the shocks of 2022-2023, regional instability persists. Under these circumstances, the Swiss franc consolidates as one of the most solid investment options to preserve capital amid euro and dollar uncertainties in the coming years.

The message is clear: the Swiss franc, with its sustained bullish trend and superior economic fundamentals, will remain a reference currency for those seeking stability in a volatile environment.