Many short-term traders tend to panic when a bearish candle appears for the first time after the leading coin hits the daily limit—should they hold or should they exit? Actually, the key lies in pattern recognition.
The core logic is as follows: strong absorption by the main force → market divergence → a complete process of weakness turning into strength. To determine whether this round of market trend is operable, three conditions must be met simultaneously—
**Condition 1**: The coin price is in a low or early rising phase, with short-term moving averages clearly sloping upward, indicating that the overall trend is still intact.
**Condition 2**: Two consecutive trading cycles form the characteristics of a leading rally (the first limit-up is clearly an solid bar, and the second limit-up is a one-word surge), which reflects the intention of the main force.
**Condition 3**: After the second limit-up, the price opens high and closes lower, forming the first bearish candle (both real bearish, false bearish, or doji are acceptable, but absolutely no limit-down), while the turnover rate remains between 10%-15%, trading volume expands but does not show a double volume surge. Most importantly, the closing price does not break the 5-day moving average, and key support levels such as the high and low points of the limit-up are still intact.
This pattern is a basic but practical judgment framework. Mastering it will help avoid many detours in short-term trading.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
25 Likes
Reward
25
10
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
Rugpull幸存者
· 01-09 00:14
Honestly, there aren't many tickets that meet all three conditions. I've seen too many people get stuck on turnover rate, and the floating shares are frightening.
View OriginalReply0
SandwichTrader
· 01-08 19:33
These three conditions are okay, but I think the real difficulty isn't in the pattern but in execution. Many people see a bearish candle and, in a rush, immediately sell without waiting for confirmation.
View OriginalReply0
SignatureVerifier
· 01-08 05:06
technically speaking, this three-condition framework has some merit but... insufficient validation on actual volatility scenarios. the 10%-15% turnover range feels statistically improbable without further auditing of edge cases. ngl, most traders won't stick to it when panic hits anyway.
Reply0
SilentAlpha
· 01-06 11:40
To be honest, these three conditions look good, but in real trading, the chances of hitting all the signals are quite rare. The idea of a second board hitting the limit-up in a straight line sounds simple, but when it actually happens, you're still likely to get cut by the main players.
View OriginalReply0
CryptoNomics
· 01-06 00:52
honestly the whole "three conditions" framework here is just pattern matching dressed up in technical jargon... like yeah, sure, correlation between volume distribution and support levels, *ceteris paribus*, but have these people actually run a proper regression analysis on their win rate? ngl the survivorship bias alone makes this statistically insignificant.
Reply0
LuckyBlindCat
· 01-06 00:45
Only if all three conditions are met will I dare to hold; otherwise, if a second downward shadow line appears, I will exit immediately. I don't want to gamble on the main force's intentions.
View OriginalReply0
MEVVictimAlliance
· 01-06 00:41
Oh, I see. The explanation is quite detailed, but when it comes to actually trading, it's still about looking at the chart patterns to decide whether to buy the dip or cut losses. The key is to have mental preparation.
View OriginalReply0
DegenWhisperer
· 01-06 00:40
All three conditions must be solid; otherwise, that bearish candle will cut your leeks in minutes.
View OriginalReply0
FOMOmonster
· 01-06 00:38
Honestly, if I can't break through the third board, I'll just run directly. There's no need to wait for a breakdown to cut losses. This framework sounds good, but in actual operation, the turnover rate part is the easiest to deceive.
View OriginalReply0
SchrodingerWallet
· 01-06 00:29
Well said, the three conditions are indispensable. I used to sell immediately when the second board opened high, but I only realized later that I needed to pay attention to these details. Turnover rate and support levels are truly lifesavers.
Many short-term traders tend to panic when a bearish candle appears for the first time after the leading coin hits the daily limit—should they hold or should they exit? Actually, the key lies in pattern recognition.
The core logic is as follows: strong absorption by the main force → market divergence → a complete process of weakness turning into strength. To determine whether this round of market trend is operable, three conditions must be met simultaneously—
**Condition 1**: The coin price is in a low or early rising phase, with short-term moving averages clearly sloping upward, indicating that the overall trend is still intact.
**Condition 2**: Two consecutive trading cycles form the characteristics of a leading rally (the first limit-up is clearly an solid bar, and the second limit-up is a one-word surge), which reflects the intention of the main force.
**Condition 3**: After the second limit-up, the price opens high and closes lower, forming the first bearish candle (both real bearish, false bearish, or doji are acceptable, but absolutely no limit-down), while the turnover rate remains between 10%-15%, trading volume expands but does not show a double volume surge. Most importantly, the closing price does not break the 5-day moving average, and key support levels such as the high and low points of the limit-up are still intact.
This pattern is a basic but practical judgment framework. Mastering it will help avoid many detours in short-term trading.