The latest economic survey data from the New York Fed once again exposes the deep-seated contradictions facing the US economy.

December's inflation expectations did not decline as the market anticipated; instead, they rose against the trend to 3.4%. At the same time, a more concerning signal has emerged: public confidence in the employment market is rapidly eroding. Data shows that the proportion of people who believe they can find a new job easily after unemployment has fallen to 43.1%, the lowest level in the past twelve and a half years.

This seemingly contradictory set of data actually reflects the current real dilemma of the US economy — inflationary pressures still exist, but the employment market is beginning to show signs of fatigue. This "one hot, one cold" situation is creating intense policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve: voices emphasizing price stability are constantly clashing with those focusing on employment protection.

Faced with this situation, the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is caught in a dilemma. Cutting interest rates could further boost inflation expectations, while raising rates might exacerbate the fragility of the employment market. Under this weighing of options, the market generally believes that the most likely choice for the Fed is to maintain the current interest rate level and continue observing the economic trend.

This storm of economic data will have a profound impact on the global liquidity landscape. As market participants, understanding the logic behind these macro changes is essential to better navigate the upcoming market volatility.