ETH drops $154 to trigger $1.554 billion liquidation, market leverage structure emerges

Ethereum (ETH) is currently hovering around $3,125, just one step away from triggering a massive liquidation event. According to the latest data, if ETH breaks through $3,279, the total short liquidation scale across major exchanges will reach $1.554 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,971, the long liquidation scale will reach $940 million. These figures reflect a severe asymmetry in market leverage structure — short risk is far greater than long risk.

Distance Between Current Position and Liquidation Price

ETH is currently quoted at $3,125.46. From this position, rising to the liquidation point at $3,279 requires an increase of $154 (4.9%), while falling to the liquidation point at $2,971 requires a decrease of $154.46 (4.9%). On the surface, the distances are similar, but the liquidation scales differ greatly.

Analysis of Asymmetry in Liquidation Risks

Short risk is greater

The most notable aspect is the huge difference in liquidation scales. The upward liquidation scale of $1.554 billion is 1.65 times larger than the downward scale of $940 million. This indicates that short positions in the market far outnumber long positions, or that the average leverage on shorts is higher.

This asymmetric structure typically appears in two scenarios: first, a market with strong bearish sentiment, where many traders establish short positions; second, the average leverage on short positions is higher. Regardless of the case, it means that upward breakthroughs will face more intense liquidation pressure.

Insights from recent trends

Data shows that ETH has increased by 4.68% over the past 7 days but decreased by 7.42% over the past 30 days. This reflects recurring price volatility in the market and indicates that although bulls have recently rebounded, overall they remain suppressed. In this context, the scale of short positions may be larger.

Implications of Market Leverage Structure

This set of liquidation data reveals several key points:

• Asymmetric Risks: The risk of breaking upward is much greater than breaking downward, which increases the difficulty of an upward breakout.
• Short accumulation: A large number of short positions are waiting to be liquidated above $3,279, potentially creating upward pressure.
• Weakness of longs: The $940 million long liquidation scale is relatively small, indicating that long positions or leverage are not strong enough.
• Price fragility: Under this structure, ETH needs stronger buying support to break upward, while breaking downward may be easier.

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

From a trading perspective, the following key levels should be monitored:

• $3,279: Breaking through this level could trigger large-scale short covering, providing upward momentum, provided there is enough buying support.
• $2,971: Falling below this level, although the long liquidation scale is smaller, could trigger chain reactions.
• Around $3,125: The current equilibrium point; the direction of a breakout from this level will largely determine the short-term trend.

Summary

ETH is currently in a delicate position. The distance to the two key liquidation levels is both $154, but the triggered liquidation scales differ by a factor of 1.65, reflecting an absolute advantage of shorts in the market leverage structure. This asymmetry is both an opportunity and a risk — for longs, breaking through $3,279 could lead to a surge driven by large-scale short liquidations; but it also makes upward breakthroughs more difficult. At this stage, the market’s key focus is whether enough buying power can accumulate to challenge this short-term fortress.