Calm Reflection on ETH 4-Hour Chart

Looking at ETH's recent performance, it has been fluctuating around 3125 yuan. To be honest, it feels a bit uncomfortable. After failing to push higher, it started to drop, and the current situation is somewhat like being pressed underwater, gasping for air.

First, let's look at the numbers. Today's price change is -0.812%, with support at around 3082 (Lower Bollinger Band), and resistance at about 3195 (Moving Average and Middle Bollinger Band). This range feels like a trap, making it difficult to break through.

The technical indicators look somewhat grim:

All moving averages are arranged in reverse order, with the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day MA lined up, and the price still being squeezed below. The MACD has formed a death cross, with DIF more than 6 points below DEA, and the histogram remains negative and is expanding. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed, indicating decreasing volatility. RSI has entered the oversold zone (6-day RSI at 25.44, 14-day RSI at 39.84), but no signs of bullish divergence are visible. KDJ also shows a death cross, with K just above 22 and D at 24, indicating a quite bearish outlook.

On the capital side, interesting signals emerge. The contract funding rate is negative at -0.00025100%, suggesting that longs in the futures market are somewhat exhausted. Trading volume has sharply increased during declines, with previous volumes reaching 1.4 million, indicating selling pressure persists. More painfully, short-term funds (1-hour, 4-hour) are flowing in, but medium- and long-term funds (12-hour, 24-hour, 3-day) are withdrawing significantly. Spot market is even worse, with outflows across all cycles, showing clear pessimism among investors.

Looking at the price trend, after failing to break 3180 resistance, ETH has been continuously declining with increased volume. Currently, it is only 2.3% above the intraday low of 3052, and the downward momentum hasn't fully eased.

So, what is the current strategy?

**Short-selling idea (but proceed with caution):** When the price rebounds to the 3150-3170 resistance zone, consider gradually opening short positions. Set stop-loss at 3220 (about 3% above, above MA20 and the middle Bollinger Band), and target 3050-3080 (about 3-4% profit, near the lower Bollinger Band and intraday low).

However, don't be too aggressive. RSI is now in oversold territory, and a technical rebound is a real possibility. Also, if the price suddenly breaks through 3180 and stabilizes above 3200, the bearish logic needs to be reconsidered, and it might be time to close positions or adjust strategies.

Disclaimer: This is just an analysis for reference, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks, so stay calm before acting.